黑色月报：3月原材表现或强于成材-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of raw materials in March may be stronger than that of finished products [1] - The iron ore market will enter the overlapping stage of "Two Sessions policy implementation period" and "demand verification period" in March. It is recommended to adopt a short - term bullish - biased and volatile approach, and beware of the callback risk after the policy expectations are fulfilled [5] - The rebar market will enter the "key observation period after the Lantern Festival" in March. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, with limited downside space. It is advisable to take a short - term bearish - biased and volatile approach, not short - sell, and pay attention to the phased rebound opportunities brought by the resumption of work [5] - The hot - rolled coil market should be treated with a short - term volatile approach. Attention should be paid to the demand verification opportunities after the Lantern Festival and the resumption rhythm of steel mills after maintenance [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore: Last week, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 750.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.60%. Overseas macro factors include the joint strike on Iran by the US and Israel, the potential new round of tariffs by the US government, and the slightly lower - than - expected initial jobless claims in the US [1][12] - Rebar: Last week, the rebar futures price fluctuated strongly. The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.39%. Domestic macro factors include more proactive macro - policies, the visit of the German Chancellor to China, and the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business by the central bank [1][12] - Hot - rolled coil: Last week, the hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated weakly. The main 2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3215 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.22%. In the industry, China and South Korea reached a price commitment agreement in the hot - rolled coil anti - dumping case, and South Korea implemented a quota system for Chinese hot - rolled coils [1][12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume rebounded to 3320.9 tons week - on - week, an increase of 631 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased slightly to 2321.1 tons, a decrease of 175 tons week - on - week. The cumulative arrival volume at 47 ports this year increased by 2697 tons year - on - year [2][16] - Demand: The daily average iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills was 233.28 tons/day, an increase of 2.8 tons/day compared with last week, 5.2 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and 5.34 tons/day year - on - year [2][16] - Inventory: The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17891.3 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 159 tons, an increase of 1170 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 2135 tons higher than the same period last year [2][17] 3.2.2 Rebar - Supply: The supply of five major steel products was 796.77 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.98 tons and a decline rate of 1%. The total inventory of five major steel products was 1846.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 134.27 tons and an increase rate of 7.8% [2][21] - Demand: The weekly consumption of five major steel products was 564.64 tons, a decrease of 10.9%. The consumption of building materials decreased by 47.6% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.3% week - on - week [2][21] 3.2.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: Among 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises with a total of 64 production lines, 50 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 78.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills was 79.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The daily average production affected by production line maintenance was 3.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93 tons. The daily average production affected by under - production was 1.10 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36 tons. The actual output of steel mills was 309.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 tons [3][24] - Demand: The in - plant inventory of steel mills was 94.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.40 tons. The total volume of hot - rolled commercial coils was about 211.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 tons. The total internal supply volume was about 98.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 tons [24] 3.2.4 Arbitrage Opportunities - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar (HC - RB) has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short hot - rolled coil and long rebar, with a target spread of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - Iron ore: The iron ore price fluctuated strongly last week. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, high inventory and slow demand growth pose constraints. In March, the market will enter the overlapping stage of policy implementation and demand verification. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish - biased and volatile approach, pay attention to rebound opportunities driven by policy expectations, and beware of callback risks [5][34] - Rebar: The rebar price fluctuated strongly last week. Demand has started slowly, but inventory pressure is still accumulating. In March, the market will enter the key observation period after the Lantern Festival. It is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish, with limited downside space. It is advisable to take a short - term bearish - biased and volatile approach, not short - sell, and pay attention to phased rebound opportunities [5][34] - Hot - rolled coil: The hot - rolled coil price fluctuated weakly last week. Steel mill maintenance has increased, but production is resilient. Demand start is lagging, and the in - plant inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to take a short - term volatile approach, pay attention to demand verification opportunities after the Lantern Festival, and track the resumption rhythm of steel mills after maintenance [6][35]