豆类期货月报：盘面震荡偏强运行，关注月底种植意向指引-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in global soybean production is the main factor putting pressure on the upward movement of the futures market. However, considering that the price of protein meal is at a relatively low level, the short - term futures market for meal may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA planting intention report at the end of the month [2][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, both the domestic and foreign futures markets showed a strong upward trend, with the foreign - market US soybean performing stronger than the domestic market. By the end of the month, the May contract of Dalian soybean meal closed at 2,833 yuan/ton, up 2.39% for the month, and the May contract of CBOT soybeans closed at 1,170 cents per bushel, up 8.61% for the month [3][9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: The USDA February report made limited adjustments. The 2026/27 US soybean planting will start in May this year, and the planting area is expected to rebound. The February forum outlook estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [3][11] - South American Soybeans: Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage. The USDA February report predicted that the Brazilian soybean output will reach a record 180 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5 million tons. As of February 21, 2026, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 32.3%, lower than 36.4% in the same period last year, and the weather in the next two weeks is favorable for the harvest. The USDA February report predicted that the Argentine soybean output will remain at 48.5 million tons. In the next two weeks, the产区 will still be hot and dry, and there is a possibility of output reduction, but South America as a whole will still have a bumper harvest [3][11] - China: In 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 111.833 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7882 million tons, an increase of 6.46%. Mysteel data shows that the estimated soybean imports in China from February to April are 5.005 million, 4.8 million, and 9.5 million tons respectively. Currently, the overall supply is expected to be loose, and the inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills are at a high level compared to the same period in history. As of February 27, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 9.89 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 days. Last week, the operation of domestic oil mills gradually resumed, but the downstream aquaculture was in a loss, and the replenishment sentiment was average, mainly maintaining rigid demand purchases. Currently, the physical inventory level of downstream enterprises is basically the same as that of the same period last year [2][16] 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage, and the USDA February report raised the Brazilian soybean output to 180 million tons, which is expected to set a new record. The Argentine output is predicted to remain at 48.5 million tons, and South America as a whole will have a bumper harvest. US soybeans will start planting in the second quarter of this year, and the USDA forum outlook estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In China, the cumulative soybean imports increased last year, and the current supply is loose. The inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. Overall, the increase in global soybean production is the main factor putting pressure on the upward movement of the futures market, but considering that the price of protein meal is at a relatively low level, the short - term futures market for meal may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA planting intention report at the end of the month [2][19]