甲醇周报：地缘提振明显，甲醇大概率偏强运行-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to the weak fundamentals of methanol, methanol futures rose first and then fell. As of Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,189 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The supply of methanol is still under pressure, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The theoretical profit of methanol production from most process routes has slightly improved. Overall, the situation of loose supply and demand of methanol has not improved substantially, and the fundamentals remain weak [5][6][10]. - On February 28, the US - Israel raid on Iran and Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz will significantly boost oil prices. It is expected that Iran's methanol exports to China will be significantly reduced in the future, and the short - term supply of methanol may be significantly reduced, which may lead to a significant increase in methanol prices [7]. - Affected by the geopolitical tension, methanol may run strongly in the short term. Investors can consider a long - position operation in methanol futures and also consider a strategy of buying methanol call options [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures rose first and then fell due to weak fundamentals. The weighted methanol price closed at 2,189 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased slightly after the Spring Festival. The spot market in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,180 - 2,260 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the main production areas focused on inventory reduction, and the downstream was cautious. The price in the Ordos North Line in the main production area fluctuated between 1,837 - 1,867 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying fluctuated between 2,160 - 2,170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamentals Analysis - Production: From February 20 - 26, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,073,145 tons, an increase of 1,340 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 92.80%, a 0.06% increase from the previous week [13]. - Downstream Demand: The operating rate of methanol - downstream olefins was stable. As of February 26, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 38.95%, the same as the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [14][16]. - Inventory: As of February 25, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 535,300 tons, a 57.32% increase from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 205,800 tons, a 34.69% decrease from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,446,700 tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous period [18][22]. - Profit: From February 13 - 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of most process routes for methanol production improved slightly. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 233.20 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; in Shandong, it was - 137.70 yuan/ton, a 20.79% decrease; in Shanxi, it was - 224.60 yuan/ton, a 10.87% increase; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 99.00 yuan/ton, an 11.24% increase; the weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: Next week, there may be more methanol device overhauls than restarts in China. It is expected that the methanol production will be about 2.071 billion tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.71%, with a decline in production [27]. - Downstream Demand: In the short term, there are no plans to change the MTO devices. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde are expected to increase, while that of chlorides may decrease [28][29][31]. - Inventory: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises will be 451,200 tons this week, a decline from the previous period. The port inventory may continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the unloading speed and the recovery of the提货 volume [31]. - Overall Situation: Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of methanol are still weak. The support mainly comes from the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. The subsequent trend of methanol needs to closely follow the guidance of geopolitics and crude oil [31].