铜价可能以高位震荡趋势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels, with limited arbitrage opportunities and an advice to hold off on options contracts [4][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at high levels, ranging from approximately 98,060 yuan/ton to 106,090 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the first half of the year is low. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by March is 4%, with a 96% chance of maintaining the current rate. By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 17.3%, 82.1% for maintaining, and 0.6% for a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43% [2][9][26] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 Refined Copper Production Growth - As of February 26, 2026, China's copper smelter refining fees were - 5.01 cents/pound, and rough smelting fees were - 50.96 dollars/kiloton. Copper processing fees remained at a low level [12] 3.2 High Spread between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of February 26, 2026, the price of refined copper in Shanghai was 102,000 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan was 89,050 yuan/ton, with a spread of 4,045 yuan/ton. Seasonally, the current spread is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15] 4. Inventory - As of February 27, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 391,529 tons, an increase of 119,054 tons from the previous week. As of February 26, LME copper inventory was 253,600 tons, an increase of 3,950 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 5.19%. As of February 27, COMEX copper inventory was 601,541 tons, an increase of 493 tons from the previous trading day. As of February 26, Shanghai bonded area inventory was 88,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous week, Guangdong area inventory was 93,200 tons, and Wuxi area inventory was 114,100 tons [19] 5. Outlook 5.1 Factors Affecting Price Trends - Key factors influencing copper prices include US policy (Fed rate cuts may be further delayed), supply (refined copper processing fees remain extremely low, and the spread between refined and scrap copper remains high), and inventory (COMEX copper continues to accumulate significantly, and Shanghai copper inventory rises notably) [25] 5.2 Forecast - The Fed's delayed rate cuts are bearish for copper prices. China's copper smelter fees have increased slightly but remain low. Refined copper production has grown rapidly, the spread between refined and scrap copper remains high, and copper product output has decreased year - on - year. Overall, copper prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels [26]