铅周报：沪铅或延续震荡趋势运行-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead prices are likely to trend in a volatile manner, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2604 of Shanghai lead futures was mainly in a volatile range from around 16,620 yuan/ton to 16,980 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and tobacco prices decreased 0.2% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to drop 0.06 percentage points. Among food items, egg prices dropped 9.2%, livestock meat prices dropped 6.1%, while fresh vegetable prices rose 6.9% and fresh fruit prices rose 3.2% [12] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of February 26, 2026, the average price of Grade 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,540 yuan/ton, 16,610 yuan/ton, and 16,540 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of Grade 1 lead was around a discount of - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - In December 2025, the global lead mine output was 402.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.2 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. As of February 13, 2026, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 100 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 200 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee in Kunming was 190 yuan/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 71.9 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from the previous month and 5.3% year - on - year, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [22] 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of February 27, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,667 tons, an increase of 8,128 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 1.84% [28] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The national consumer price index showed certain changes in January 2026. Global lead mine output remained at a relatively high level. Refined lead supply continued to be in surplus. Lead processing fees increased slightly, and prices were at the bottom. Shanghai lead inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years. The LME lead inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in recent years [33]