——债券月度策略思考：两会前瞻与美伊冲突如何影响债市-20260302

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the economic growth target for 2026 will be maintained around 5%, with a focus on optimizing structure and high-quality growth, as many local governments have adjusted their GDP targets downwards [1][5][17] - The macro policy stance is expected to remain stable, with a fiscal deficit maintained at 4% and a reduction in government bond supply compared to 2025, indicating limited room for monetary easing in the short term [1][5][25] - The bond market is expected to experience a seasonal pattern where yields may decline post the two sessions, with a cautious trading environment before the sessions [1][5][34] Group 2 - The report highlights that March marks the beginning of the traditional peak season for real estate, with expectations for a "small spring" in the market, particularly following the implementation of supportive policies in Shanghai [1][6][40] - Economic data for March is anticipated to show a strong start, although the performance may not exceed the previous year's levels, with exports being a key highlight [1][6][40] - The liquidity conditions are expected to remain stable, with a manageable funding gap of 1.5 trillion, primarily due to reserve requirements and maturing instruments [1][6][30] Group 3 - The supply side is projected to see a decrease in net financing for government bonds in March, estimated at 1.2 trillion, while demand from banks may weaken but insurance companies are expected to provide support [2][6][40] - The report indicates a marginal improvement in the supply-demand structure, which is favorable for the bond market [2][6][40] - Historical data suggests that the bond market's performance in March is generally better than in February, with a higher probability of yield declines [2][6][40]