信用：控制久期，静候时机

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After a continuous decline, the bond market adjusted this week, with interest - rate bond yields rising overall, driving up credit - bond yields. Credit investors may need to control duration and be more cautious. It is recommended to look for coupon - bearing assets in bonds with a maturity of about 2 years or less. For Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds and ultra - long bonds, appropriate waiting is needed [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 How to Understand This Week's Trend? - The bond market adjusted this week after a continuous decline. Interest - rate bond yields rose overall, driving up credit - bond yields. In terms of varieties, the increase of Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds was higher than that of general credit bonds, and the yields of some low - grade coupon credit bonds even declined further. In terms of maturity, the increase of ultra - long credit bonds over 5 years was higher than that of medium - and short - term credit bonds. In terms of credit spreads, the spreads of Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds widened, while those of general credit bonds were mostly compressed passively [1][10]. - From an institutional perspective, funds, wealth management products, money - market funds, insurance companies, and other institutions are still net buyers of credit bonds in the secondary market, mainly focusing on general credit bonds with a maturity of 3 years or less. Other institutions have taken over some ultra - long credit bonds, but the overall volume is limited. Funds sold long - term interest - rate bonds and bought short - term credit bonds for risk - avoidance [13][14]. 3.2 How to Understand the Recent Trend of Tier - 2 and Perpetual Bonds? - Since the second half of 2025, Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds have experienced a process of continuous weakness - equivalence - continuous strength compared with general credit bonds. The reasons for the weakness in the second half of 2025 are: the increase in value - added tax on financial bonds, concerns caused by new regulations on public - fund redemptions, the fact that amortized - cost bond funds can only invest in general credit bonds, and the portfolio adjustment needs of insurance companies due to the implementation of new accounting standards [2][16]. - In 2026, most of the unfavorable factors have become history, but the impact of amortized - cost bond funds is still difficult to fade. Benefiting from the strong performance of the stock market, the subscription volume of fixed - income + funds has increased significantly, bringing additional buying power for Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds. Also, with the decline of the bond market, market sentiment has been good, and Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds have relatively benefited [2][24]. 3.3 How to Look Forward When Credit Spreads Are at a Low Level? - Recently, as the bond market has continued to decline, credit - bond yield spreads have also declined. Currently, both credit - bond yields and credit spreads have dropped to relatively low levels. The yields and spreads of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years have dropped to extremely low historical levels, and there is little room for further decline in credit spreads [3][26]. - Looking back at history, when credit spreads are at a low level, the positive effects of interest - rate cuts on credit bonds are not strong, as seen in February 2020. After credit spreads decline to an absolute low level, there are more unfavorable factors than favorable ones. Historically, when spreads widen, credit - bond yields are likely to rise as well. For credit investments, it may be necessary to control duration and be more cautious [3][30][33]. 3.4 How to Participate? - Short - term bonds with a maturity of about 2 years are a high - probability choice in the current environment. It is recommended to look for coupon - bearing assets in bonds with a maturity of about 2 years or less [4][36]. - For Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds, appropriate waiting is needed. As the stock market enters a volatile period, the inflow of fixed - income + funds may slow down, and the price - performance ratio of Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds has significantly decreased [4][36]. - Ultra - long bonds also require appropriate waiting. Currently, the relative value of ultra - long bonds is low, and market sentiment is poor. The trading volume has increased significantly, banks' net sales before the Spring Festival have increased substantially, and credit spreads have dropped to the lowest level since 2025 [4][38].