锌周报2026/2/27：低波动观察周-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of zinc may lack drivers, and March is the time to verify the authenticity of the peak season [4]. - The Trump tariff issue is basically priced in, the political uncertainty in the United States increases, and the logic of a "weak dollar" is strengthened. The path of the Fed's interest rate cuts is highly uncertain. China's Two Sessions are about to be held, and real - estate policies will be intensified to support the market [5]. - Overall, the zinc fundamentals lack clear short - term drivers, but the macro - level is expected to gradually shift to a risk - on situation in March. Therefore, the zinc price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in inventory data next week [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus - Capital Flow - After the festival, the funds in the domestic futures market showed significant structural differentiation, flowing around the three main lines of "game between strong expectations and weak reality, supply disturbance drive, and policy preview of the Two Sessions" and avoiding sectors with high inventory and weak demand [9]. - The post - festival capital activity in the non - ferrous metal sector has not fully recovered, and the volatility of non - ferrous metals has a downward trend. As of February 27, the open interest of SHFE zinc was still less than 186,000 lots, with an increase of less than 7,000 lots after the Spring Festival, far lower than the market activity after the Spring Festival last year [9]. - The VIX volatility index of SHFE zinc shows a downward trend [10]. Market Focus - Real Estate - Policy - side: After the Spring Festival, core cities represented by Shanghai took the lead in introducing new policies, including reducing the purchase - restriction threshold, increasing the provident fund quota, and optimizing the property tax, to activate market trading. Local Two Sessions clearly stated the orientation of "stabilizing the real - estate market, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [14]. - Market - side: As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country was 8.9% (slightly increased year - on - year in the lunar calendar), the labor attendance rate was 15.5% (slightly increased year - on - year in the lunar calendar), and the fund arrival rate was 29% (slightly increased year - on - year in the lunar calendar). The start of resumption of work and labor attendance was slightly earlier than last year, especially in East China [14]. - The expectation of a stabilized real - estate market has an important role in boosting the demand expectation for zinc. In 2026, the drag on real - estate demand is expected to narrow significantly, and the marginal increase in demand from the new economy can fully make up for the reduction in the real - estate sector [14]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Main Industry News - Inner Mongolia plans to promote the upgrading of the non - ferrous metal industry in 2026, aiming to improve the deep - processing level of non - ferrous metals such as zinc [18]. - Newmont's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 46,000 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous quarter. Its total zinc concentrate production in 2025 was 231,000 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year, and the production guidance for 2026 is 220,000 tons [18]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 30,000 tons, basically unchanged from the previous quarter. Its total salable zinc production in 2025 was 101,000 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year. The production guidance for 2026 is 86,300 - 98,300 tons [18]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In January 2026, China's zinc concentrate production was 294,300 metal tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous month and a 17.20% increase year - on - year. The production in February is expected to be 222,700 tons, a 7.13% decrease year - on - year [21]. - The domestic zinc concentrate TC stopped falling and stabilized at 1,500 yuan/metal ton in late December. This week, the average price rebounded to 1,550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous week. It is expected that TC will continue to rebound from March to April, but the overall space is limited [22]. - This week, the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 23.75 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.60 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. As the import TC continues to decline, the loss of zinc concentrate imports has expanded. As of February 26, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 889 yuan/ton [22]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Downstream Enterprises' Production and Inventory - This week, the weighted average operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises was 7.62%, a 6.70 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, but still in the Spring Festival shutdown state. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises this year were 22 days, an increase of 1 day from last year. Enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [24]. - As of February 26, the total weekly raw material inventory of zinc downstream enterprises in China was 23,890 tons, a decrease of 1,014 tons from before the festival. The inventory pressure is not large, especially for die - cast zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises [24]. - On February 26, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 6.84%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased slightly after the festival, and the finished - product inventory of 23 cities' galvanized sheets increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises were about 20 days, an increase of 1 day from last year. Enterprises are expected to resume production from late February to early March [30]. - On February 26, the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 8.73%, an 8.34 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Before the festival, die - cast zinc alloy enterprises slowed down their purchases due to high prices, resulting in a decline in raw material inventory and a seasonal increase in finished - product inventory. The average holiday days of 20 die - cast zinc alloy sample enterprises were 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days from last year. The resumption time is concentrated around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [36]. - On February 26, the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 19.76%, a 12.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The raw material inventory continued to decline to the lowest level in the same period in history, and the finished - product inventory remained at a high level in the same period in history. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements. The downstream orders of zinc oxide also show structural differences [42]. Weekly Fundamental Situation - LME Inventory - LME inventory has been gradually decreasing since reaching a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19. As of February 26, it dropped below 100,000 tons to 98,400 tons, a decrease of 3,775 tons from before the festival. The overall cancellation warrant ratio dropped to a low level, with only 7,500 tons of cancellation warrants remaining [45]. - This week, the global visible inventory reached 311,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton increase from the previous week, showing seasonal inventory accumulation [45]. Structure & Arbitrage - SHFE Zinc Spread Structure - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the SHFE zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a 105 - yuan discount to the 2604 contract, and the discount widened [49]. - Recently, the Contango structure of SHFE zinc has strengthened again. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent opportunity to enter the inter - period positive arbitrage, as it is expected to show a rapid inventory - reduction state after the Spring Festival this year [49]. Structure & Arbitrage - LME Zinc Structure Curve - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December, and the discount range has recently shown a narrowing trend. As of February 27, the LME zinc 0 - 3 discount was 16.97 US dollars/ton [52]. - With the continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market has shown an abnormal convex structure recently. It is advisable to consider holding a positive arbitrage [52]. Structure & Arbitrage - LME Reports - The FuturesBandingReport of LME shows that the long and short forces are relatively balanced, but the short - position concentration in the far - month contracts has increased, possibly due to the seasonal short - position concentration caused by the long - term zinc ore shipment [54]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration decreased after the February delivery [54].