瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market supply - demand pattern of the pig industry is loose, and pig prices will continue to be under pressure. It is necessary to pay special attention to the impact of the entry of secondary fattening on supply and prices. The main 2605 contract opened low and moved lower, hitting a new low since its listing, and continued to be under pressure from the system moving average [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan; the main contract position was 165,149 lots, an increase of 9,894 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,156 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 45,746 lots, a decrease of 3,038 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 11,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The main basis of live pigs was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,394.9 yuan, an increase of 4.12 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 945.28, an increase of 13.21; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned pig slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in March 2026 was 13.7453 million heads, a 17.63% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in February [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - After the Spring Festival, the breeding side gradually resumed the slaughter rhythm. Based on sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, the supply pressure in the near term remains. However, as prices fall, some farms may hold back sales and secondary fattening may enter the market, affecting the supply rhythm. On the demand side, slaughtering enterprises resumed work after the festival, and the slaughter volume rebounded from the holiday low. But in the short term, the terminal is mainly consuming holiday inventory, and with the recent temperature rise, consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and the slaughter volume is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high [2]