海南机场（600515）：“一主两翼”多元协同，尽享封关红利

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Hainan Airport, with a target price of 5.31 CNY per share [7]. Core Insights - Hainan Airport is positioned to benefit from the "One Main Two Wings" strategy, focusing on airport operations while developing complementary businesses such as duty-free, real estate, and hotel services [7]. - The company has undergone significant financial restructuring, reducing its debt ratio from 85.8% in 2020 to 51.39% in the first half of 2025, enhancing its financial stability [7]. - The release of customs closure benefits is expected to drive growth in passenger and cargo traffic, with international passenger numbers projected to increase significantly due to policy changes [7]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,762 million CNY in 2023 to 9,472 million CNY by 2027, with a notable increase of 59.0% in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 392 million CNY in 2025 before recovering to 721 million CNY by 2027 [2]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 1,490 million CNY in 2025 to 2,165 million CNY in 2027 [2]. Business Segments Airport Operations - The airport business is the core revenue driver, expected to contribute 42% of total revenue in 2024, with significant growth anticipated following the acquisition of Meilan Airport [7][36]. - The company operates 12 airports, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and passenger capacity [36]. Duty-Free Business - The duty-free segment is projected to generate 2.26 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with the company participating in the operation of five duty-free stores [56]. - The duty-free business benefits from high margins, contributing significantly to overall profitability [7]. Real Estate Business - The real estate segment has seen a decline in revenue contribution, dropping from over 60% in 2016-2020 to 24.8% in 2021, as the company shifts focus towards airport-related developments [61]. - The company is actively pursuing the development of logistics and processing facilities to support its airport operations [61]. Property Management - Property management revenue is expected to reach 7.53 billion CNY in 2024, with a focus on enhancing service quality and expanding project management [67]. - The company manages over 2,100 million square meters of property, reflecting a 41.64% increase in managed area [67]. Other Businesses - The hotel and flight training segments generated 6.52 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with ongoing efforts to expand hotel offerings and training capabilities [73].