Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-02 08:45Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the short - term bullish data is digested, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price will enter a shock adjustment state again. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 15,225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 191,520 hands, down 9,605 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 794,513 hands, down 43,467 hands; the cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 11,327 sheets, up 155 sheets; China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,633 yuan/ton; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,697 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,786 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2] - The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 21,100 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 1,397 hands, down 68 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 14,198 hands, down 296 hands; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets; the China yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,920 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,517 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 22,998 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] Spot Market - The China cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,633 yuan/ton; the China imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,697 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the China imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 13,786 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 21,517 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - combed cotton yarn 32 - count) is 22,998 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,287 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton in the whole country is 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons; the import quantity of cotton is 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the import quantity of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the import cotton profit is 2,870 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory of cotton in the whole country is 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days; the cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 200 million meters; the yarn output is 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; the export amount of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, an increase of 181,872,600 US dollars; the export amount of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, an increase of 303,870,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 17.73%, a decrease of 1.46%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 17.73%, a decrease of 1.46%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 17.91%, a decrease of 0.43%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.48%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 103,424 hands, an increase of 3,841 hands from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 132,394 hands, a decrease of 22,922 hands from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,970 hands, a decrease of 26,763 hands from the previous week [2] - As of February 27, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.2676 million tons, a decrease of 87,800 tons (a decrease of 1.64%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.1005 million tons, a decrease of 112,600 tons (a decrease of 2.67%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 629,000 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons (an increase of 3.42%) from the previous week [2] - In the week ending February 19, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a decrease of 46% from the previous week and a decrease of 12% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 193,000 bales, an increase of 12% from the previous week and a decrease of 10% from the average level of the previous four weeks [2] Domestic Market - On the supply side, the warehousing speed of port cotton has slowed down, and the ex - warehouse speed is OK. As of February 26, the inventory of major ports for imported cotton was 538,100 tons, a 0.75% increase from the previous period. On the consumption side, Xinjiang textile enterprises have basically started work, the spinning start - up rate has rebounded, the finished product inventory has increased, and they mainly ship pre - orders [2]