瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal futures closed up today, affected by the strength of US soybeans, and short - term trading is recommended. The supply pressure of rapeseed meal in the far - month will increase due to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market, but the market has already anticipated this [2]. - The rapeseed oil futures closed up today, boosted by the rise in international oil prices, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already factored this in [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9359 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2295 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 month spread of rapeseed oil was 29 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the 5 - 9 month spread of rapeseed meal was - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 16518 lots, up 5021 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 225608 lots, up 11708 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 625, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal was 1000, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 688.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5918 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 10156.25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed was 4857.1 yuan/ton, down 3139.96 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.99, up 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 691 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 195 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 148 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 3.2%, up 3.2% [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 1 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.65 million tons, up 0.05 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 9.35 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 27.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 1.17 million tons, down 1.2 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.48 million tons, up 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.16%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.15%, down 0.1% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 14.78%, down 0.22%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 14.61%, up 0.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.5%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 16.5%, down 0.15% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.19%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.62%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - On February 27 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures fell, but rose slightly for the whole week, following the trend of soybean oil. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract fell 5.30 Canadian dollars to 687.70 Canadian dollars per ton. Traders are skeptical about the continuous rise of rapeseed due to lower - than - expected demand from major buyers and sufficient inventory [2]. - The expected high yield of South American soybeans and the increasing supply pressure as the Brazilian harvest progresses. However, the US biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing supports the strength of US soybeans [2]. - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Outlook Forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 season [2].