瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260302

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated widely. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, some steel mills in certain regions have blast furnace production - cut plans. The rebar market may maintain a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating above the 0 - axis with a stable red bar. The reference view is to go long on dips and pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,067.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position volume was 1,903,813 lots, a decrease of 44,381 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 33,296 lots, an increase of 1,229 lots. The RB5 - 10 contract spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 22,828 tons, unchanged. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 152 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,120.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the RB main contract was 173.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 750.00 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 3.00 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 170.9631 million tons, an increase of 1.5398 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 625,900 tons, an increase of 72,100 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7506 million tons, a decrease of 135,200 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 2.1946 million tons, an increase of 452,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.24%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 36.19%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.3284 million tons, an increase of 117,700 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 5.6776 million tons, an increase of 727,900 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 11.46%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 13.75 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons. The monthly net export volume of steel products was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659.89 million square meters, a decrease of 3.824 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a decrease of 5.313 million square meters. The area of unsold commercial housing was 40.236 million square meters, a decrease of 875,000 square meters [2] Industry News - The China Index Academy reported that affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the listing and trading activity in the real - estate market in February declined seasonally. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,835 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month decline of 0.54%, narrowing by 0.31 percentage points compared with the previous month. According to the international oil tanker traffic monitoring system, the sailing speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the region has come to a standstill. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz [2]