瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating on the bullish side" for the iron ore industry [2] 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2605 contract rebounded with a reduction in positions. Due to the geopolitical situation where Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, there are expectations of rising freight rates and a potential reduction in international iron ore supply, which may support iron ore prices. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories increased again. After the Spring Festival, there are expectations of an increase in the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising, and the red column is expanding [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 754.50 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 542,727 lots, down 3,955 lots; the spread between the I 5 - 9 contracts is 21 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 39,219 lots, up 3,286 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 2,900 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 99.1 US dollars/ton, up 0.74 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 802 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 792 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 707 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 38 yuan, down 3 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.75 US dollars/ton, up 0.45 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.32, unchanged; the estimated import cost is 795 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,340.70 tons, up 19.80 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,230.00 tons, down 91.00 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,891.30 tons, up 159.18 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,085.10 tons, down 1,618.83 tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 21.00 days, down 8 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 37.12 tons, down 1.78 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 59.03%, down 2.24%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 41.72 tons, up 2.17 tons; the BDI index is 2,140.00, up 23.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.239 US dollars/ton, up 0.41 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 87.48%, up 1.05%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.87%, down 0.45%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.57%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 16.81%, up 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 16.96%, down 0.01% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,340.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.8 tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,690.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.6 tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 1,948.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,571.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 138.0 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 742.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.7 tons. - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,230.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91.1 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,146.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,032.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons [2]