长债收益率先上后下，债市总体走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market was strong, and the yield curve continued to flatten. The long - term bond yield decreased overall, while the short - term bond yield increased slightly. This week, the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict will boost risk - aversion sentiment, and the loose liquidity at the beginning of the month will support the bond market. However, the two - session policy expectations and profit - taking by some trading desks may cause fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was generally strong last week, with long - term bond yields continuing to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.17% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.46bp compared to the Saturday before the Spring Festival, and the 1 - year Treasury yield increased slightly by 0.23bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [3]. - On February 24, the LPR remained unchanged, and the bond market was weak. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.24bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.02%. - On February 25, affected by the stock market and real - estate policy rumors, the bond market adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.35bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.13%. - On February 26, after the "Shanghai Seven - Point Policy" was implemented, the bond market was under pressure. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.30bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.10%. - On February 27, the central bank cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, and the bond market recovered. The 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 4.11bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.05%. - On February 28, due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the bond market was strong. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.24bp [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 46 interest - rate bonds were issued, 23 less than the week before the Spring Festival. The issuance volume was 787.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 138.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 368.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.1 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds increased, while those of policy - financial bonds and local government bonds decreased [18]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.62, 3.41, and 17.86 times respectively [19]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - On February 27, the central bank announced to cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0% from March 2, 2026. This move will reduce the cost of forward foreign exchange sales for banks and enterprises, encourage enterprises to conduct forward foreign exchange purchases, and release a policy signal to stabilize the exchange - rate market [21]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency production data showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate and daily molten - iron output increased, while the operating rates of petroleum - asphalt plants and semi - steel tire plants decreased. - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. - Regarding prices, pork prices dropped significantly, while most commodity prices rose. Copper and rebar prices increased, and oil prices decreased slightly [22]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 461.4 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007 rates increased significantly, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks continued to decline, the national - share direct - discount rates of all terms increased significantly, and the volume of pledged - repurchase transactions decreased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio first increased and then decreased, with an overall slight decline [33][36][40].