地方债周度跟踪20260227：下周发行环比小幅上升至2725亿元-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase in the next period. The issuance/ net financing in the current period (2026.2.23 - 2026.3.1) was 2564.20 billion yuan/ 1894.23 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/ net financing in the next period (2026.3.2 - 2026.3.8) is 2724.84 billion yuan/ 2562.29 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance progress of new - added local government bonds in 2026 is relatively fast. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new - added general bonds/ new - added special bonds accounted for 26.3% and 18.7% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9% and 20.5% [2]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has been extended, and the issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds have changed, with the full - field multiples decreasing [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and national bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms has changed, with the 10 - year spread widening and the 30 - year spread narrowing slightly, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased significantly [2]. - Currently, local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Period's Local Government Bond Issuance Volume Decreased, and the Weighted Issuance Term was Extended - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period was 2564.20 billion yuan (2026.2.23 - 2026.3.1), compared with 3221.36 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance in the next period is 2724.84 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 21.76 years, significantly longer than the 15.48 years in the previous period [2][8]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds decreased to 12.09BP and increased to 23.46BP respectively, and the full - field multiples decreased compared to the previous period [2][9]. 3.2 Issuance Progress of New - Added Local Government Bonds - As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new - added general bonds accounted for 26.3% of the annual quota, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9%. The cumulative issuance of new - added special bonds accounted for 18.7% of the annual quota, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 20.5% [2][12][15]. 3.3 Special Local Government Bond Issuance - In the current period, the issuance of special new - added special bonds was 53 billion yuan. The special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 934 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new - added special bonds in 2026 was 999 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 6797 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 34.0%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 36 billion yuan [2][19][20]. 3.4 March 2026 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - As of February 27, 2026, 24 regions have disclosed that the total planned issuance of local government bonds in March 2026 is 9347 billion yuan, including 3067 billion yuan of new - added special bonds [2][21][22]. 3.5 Spread and Turnover Rate of Local Government Bonds - As of February 27, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 22.47BP and 20.74BP respectively, with the 10 - year spread widening by 3.46BP and the 30 - year spread narrowing by 0.66BP compared to February 14, 2026 [2][28][29]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.42%, a significant decrease compared to the previous period's 1.08% [2][35].