固定收益定期：债看内部

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may fluctuate and strengthen, with support mainly coming from institutional investors such as banks, while trading institutions like securities firms and funds may influence the rhythm. The relative change in deposit and loan growth rates determines that institutional investors such as banks are more in need of assets this year, which sets the general direction for the bond market to strengthen. The widening gap between deposit and loan growth rates may continue, leading to the overall directional allocation of bonds by banks and a pattern of loose liquidity. The rhythm of the bond market's recovery depends more on the allocation rhythm of trading institutions. When the positions of trading institutions are low, it is suitable to increase positions; when their positions rise to a high level, it may be considered to reduce positions [6][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance Last Week - The bond market fluctuated last week, with ultra - long bonds performing weakly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.5 bps to 1.78%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 2.7 bps to 2.27%. The secondary capital bonds of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - grade had a slight adjustment, rising by 1.2 bps and 3.3 bps respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield decreased by 0.5 bps to 1.58% [1][9]. 3.2 Impact of International Conflicts on the Domestic Bond Market - The intensification of international conflicts such as the attack on Iran by the US and Israel may have limited impact on the domestic bond market. On one hand, it may lead to a decline in global risk appetite and drive interest rates down as funds flow into safe - haven assets. On the other hand, it may increase global inflation pressure and push up interest rates. However, there is no clear pattern in the domestic bond market's performance after past wars. The domestic bond market is more affected by the internal economic and monetary environment, and geopolitical conflicts are indirect and non - primary influencing factors. The impact needs to be closely observed [2][10]. 3.3 Domestic Bond Market Structure - The bond market currently shows a pattern where non - bank institutions are cautious and banks are increasing their allocations. The adjustment pressure in the bond market after the Spring Festival mainly comes from non - bank institutions. Non - bank institutions' bond sales are due to subjective caution and the continuous contraction of their scale. In January, the bond fund scale decreased by 41.47 billion shares, a decline of about 4.5%. However, the non - bank positions have reached a relatively low level, and the space for further reduction is limited. Banks are facing a shortage of assets. In recent months, the deposit growth rate has been rising while the loan growth rate has been falling, especially for large banks. This leads to an asset gap, and banks need to increase bond allocations or inter - bank lending to balance the gap, which increases bond demand and supports loose liquidity [3][11]. 3.4 Persistence of Banks' Asset Shortage in the Economic Transformation Period - China is in an economic transformation period, with the slowdown of traditional economies such as infrastructure and real estate and the prosperity of new economies such as information technology and high - end manufacturing. Traditional economies have a much higher financing scale per unit of added value than new economies. For example, the loan - to - added - value ratio of the water conservancy industry is about 20%, while that of the information service industry is only about 0.27 - 0.28%. At the same time, due to the lag in the adjustment of the residents' employment structure, residents' income is under pressure, and their savings inclination increases. This may lead to a continuous slowdown in loan demand and a continuous increase in deposit growth, resulting in a continuous asset gap for banks and an increasing demand for bond allocation [4][14]. 3.5 Government Bond Supply - This year's government bond supply structure is similar to last year's and remains stable. The local bond supply of about 10 - year terms has relatively increased. The supply rhythm is similar to last year, with the net financing of government bonds in the first two months being 2.6 trillion yuan, basically the same as last year. In terms of the term structure, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued since the beginning of this year is 57.6%, lower than 62.5% last year, while the proportion of 10 - year bonds is 28.4%, significantly higher than 20.7% in the same period last year. The proportion of 30 - year bonds is 28.6%, still higher than 24.1% in the same period last year [5][16].