铝策略月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the marginal improvement effect of supply - demand before the Spring Festival was diluted, with the impact being reflected after the festival. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was seasonally consumed, and the production cuts of northern large - scale plants led to a slight reduction in inventory, causing the spot price to stop falling and rebound. However, the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some overhauled production capacity after the festival will still suppress the upside. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly, and the price of alumina will run weakly and stably. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and production capacity progress. - For electrolytic aluminum, in March, the resumption of work at the processing end is advancing. However, due to the concentrated arrival of goods at ports after the festival and insufficient manpower at stations, the logistics turnover efficiency is temporarily limited. It is expected that the aluminum ingot inventory will continue to accumulate, with the peak possibly appearing in the middle and late March. The short - term supply - demand is still in a mismatch stage, with the resumption of work and inventory accumulation competing with each other, and the upside is restricted. It still awaits the confirmation or falsification of demand expectations. Key attention should be paid to the improvement point of warehousing efficiency and the inflection point of inventory reduction [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In February, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,744 yuan/ton as of the 27th, a monthly decline of 0.9%. The Shanghai aluminum futures also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 23,835 yuan/ton within the month, a monthly decline of 3%. The aluminum alloy futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 22,730 yuan/ton within the month, a monthly decline of 0.39% [5][6]. 3.2 Spread - In February, the alumina's discount narrowed from 139 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum's discount narrowed from 240 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is expected that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina will drop to 8,624.8 million tons in March, with a production of 7.378 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. It is expected that the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase to 4,430 million tons in March, with a production of 3.875 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and the molten aluminum ratio will drop to 64.4% [3][5]. 3.4 Demand - The Spring Festival diluted the start - up performance. In February, the average start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 55.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.25% compared with January. Among them, the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip increased by 0.1% to 65.3%, the start - up rate of aluminum foil increased by 0.73% to 71.63%, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 14.8% to 32.83%, the start - up rate of aluminum cables decreased by 4.1% to 56%, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 5.78% to 52.77% [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in February, the alumina inventory increased by 159,500 tons to 248,300 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 158,900 tons to 356,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 30,200 tons to 467,600 tons. In terms of social inventory, the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 414,000 tons to 1.157 million tons; the alumina port inventory decreased by 97,000 tons to 158,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory increased by 92,000 tons to 398,000 tons [3][5].