银河期货油脂日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the volatility of oils and fats may increase due to geopolitical factors, but overall, they will maintain a volatile trend. It is difficult to conduct unilateral trading, so it is recommended to wait and see. P59 and Y59 can consider reverse arbitrage at high prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8260, up 34; palm oil 2605 is 8898, up 118; rapeseed oil 2605 is 9359, up 174. The basis of each variety in different regions has different changes [2] - Monthly Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 16, down 24; palm oil is - 22, down 8; rapeseed oil is 29, up 23 [2] - Cross - Variety Spread: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 638, down 84; OI - Y is 1099, up 140; OI - P is 461, up 56; the oil - meal ratio is 2.92, up 0.02 [2] - Import Profit: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 103, and the CNF price is 1094; the disk profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1527, and the FOB price is 1085 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: In the 9th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 70.6 tons, palm oil is 78.7 tons, and rapeseed oil is 27.1 tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.20% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 19.35% month - on - month. The export volume is expected to decline by 21.5%, with an expected export volume of 1,149,063 tons. Indonesia has confiscated 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations and industrial forest concessions, of which 1.7 million hectares have been transferred to state - owned enterprise Agrinas Palma Nusantara [4] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the palm oil futures price rose by more than 1%. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 78.67 tons, up 8.03 tons week - on - week. The origin quotation was stable, the disk import profit was inverted by about 100, and the basis was stable. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price rose slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 58.86 tons, with an actual operating rate of 16.19%. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 91.33 tons, down 3.16 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 3.34%. The inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to maintain the reverse arbitrage idea [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the rapeseed oil futures price rose by more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1.2 tons, with an operating rate of 3.20%. As of February 27, the rapeseed inventory was 15.1 tons, up 5.3 tons week - on - week. As of February 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 23.7 tons, down 0.5 tons, and the inventory is in the process of marginal destocking. The import profit is inverted by about - 1500. It is expected that the basis will be weak, and the later large - scale arrival of goods will suppress the increase [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large trading difficulty [9] - Arbitrage: P59 and Y59 can consider reverse arbitrage at high prices [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include 8 figures, showing the spot basis and monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as cross - variety spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18]