美伊局势升级，商品市场如何演变？

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the report's investment rating for the industry is provided in the content [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current conflict between the US and Iran is a continuously escalating crisis, with the oil and chemical sectors being the core focus of market sentiment and funds [3] - The energy sector may be the next "pre - startup" sector in the commodity market's internal sector rotation [9] - The escalation of the Iranian situation is expected to drive up international oil prices through supply reduction and cost increase [14][15] - The Iranian situation will have an impact on the chemical, precious metal, and shipping sectors, with different driving logics for each [19][20][24] - The key to the market trend lies in whether the Iranian event continues to escalate and the degree of its penetration into the real - world industry [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Internal Sector Rotation - In typical upward trends of the Wenhua Finance Index, there is an obvious rotation rhythm among sectors: precious metals → non - ferrous metals → energy → agricultural products → black - series [9] - Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have shown a trend since April, and the energy sector is at a relatively low valuation after a previous correction and has shown signs of stabilization and recovery [9] 3.2 Pricing Logic of Geopolitical Conflicts - Although Iran's direct impact on global oil supply is limited (current daily crude oil exports are about 1.6 - 1.8 million barrels, accounting for less than 3% of global supply), the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (through which about 19% of the world's crude oil is transported daily) will lead to a significant increase in short - term logistics costs and insurance rates, supporting the rise in oil prices [14] - After the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea were blocked, the detour route from the Port of Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia to the Port of Shanghai in China is about 70% longer, and the shipping time is extended by about 14 - 16 days, with an estimated freight increase of 50% - 80% [15] 3.3 Impact on Other Sectors 3.3.1 Chemical Sector - Iran is the third - largest oil producer in OPEC and has the world's second - largest natural gas reserves and third - highest production. It converts a large amount of natural gas into downstream chemical products [19] - Iran is a major global supplier of methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, and sulfur, and changes in the Middle East situation will affect the prices of these chemical products [19] 3.3.2 Precious Metals - The Iranian event drives up the price of precious metals through three paths: direct explosion of safe - haven demand, pricing of inflation expectations, and long - term narrative of the US dollar's credit. These factors combine short - term and long - term effects, as well as emotions and expectations [20][21][23] 3.3.3 Shipping Index - After the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, ships had to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a decrease in the efficiency of shipping capacity utilization [24] - The shipping index is driven by a complete chain of "route obstruction - longer voyage - tightened shipping capacity - rising freight rates", and this round of driving is not just short - term emotional speculation [29] 3.4 Summary - The crude oil sector is at a key "relay" position, and the escalation of the Iranian situation has catalyzed the market, with the entire crude - oil system rising [30] - Different assets have different rising logics. The key to the market trend depends on whether the Iranian event continues to escalate and the degree of its impact on the real - world industry [31]