双焦周报：宏观消息扰动，期价震荡偏多-20260302

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coal and coke market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating weakly. On the supply side, state - owned mines resumed production quickly after the Spring Festival, while private mines and coal washing plants were not fully operational, and the Mongolian coal port resumed customs clearance on the 23rd with a steadily increasing clearance volume, putting downward pressure on coal prices. On the demand side, coke was stable, steel mill demand recovered slowly, there were strong expectations of environmental protection control before major meetings, the start - up of coke and steel enterprises increased limitedly, and the recovery strength of the real estate and infrastructure sectors was unclear, so the release of steel demand was uncertain, which restricted the demand for coking coal. In the future, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate after the Spring Festival, but the supply level is still restricted by policies. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. Although the coking coal fundamentals are under pressure, the overall contradiction is not prominent. Spot prices are expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, the coal - coke market had weak supply and demand and prices oscillated weakly. After the Spring Festival, state - owned mines resumed production faster, but private mines and coal - washing plants were not fully back in operation. Mongolian coal ports resumed customs - clearance on the 23rd, with a steadily increasing clearance volume, which put pressure on coal prices. Coke demand from steel mills recovered slowly, and environmental protection control was expected to be strict before major meetings. The real - estate and infrastructure recovery was uncertain, restricting coking - coal demand. In the future, coal - mine production resumption will speed up, but supply is policy - restricted. Downstream is mainly digesting inventory. Coking - coal fundamentals are under pressure but the overall contradiction is not significant. Spot is expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market will fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The total coking - coal inventory was 2063.29 tons this week, a decrease of 363.36 tons from last week, a week - on - week change rate of - 14.97%. The total coke inventory was 980.03 tons this week, a decrease of 7.92 tons from last week, a week - on - week change rate of - 0.80%. The daily average pig - iron output of steel mills was 233.28 tons this week, an increase of 2.79 tons from last week, a week - on - week change rate of 1.21%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was - 7 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from last week, a week - on - week change rate of - 12.5% [4] 1. Futures Market Review - The report provides a 5 - day intraday chart of the main contracts of coking coal and coke, but no specific data analysis is given. The data source is the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [6][7] 2. Spot Market Review - The report presents charts of the average price of various coking - coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, and the arrival price of first - grade and quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke. The data sources are the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [8][11] 3. Fundamental Data - The report includes charts of the daily output of clean coal from mines and coal - washing plants, the customs - clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the coking - coal inventory of steel mills, independent coke enterprises and ports, the available days of coking - coal inventory for steel mills and independent coke enterprises, the daily output of coke from steel mills and independent coke enterprises, the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of steel mills, independent coke enterprises and ports, the available days of coke inventory for steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, and the profit - making rate of 247 steel mills. The data sources are the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [15][18][22]