避险情绪升温，国债期货震荡上涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The sudden outbreak of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend led to a rapid increase in risk aversion, driving up the investment demand for Treasury bonds and pushing up prices. However, geopolitical risks are only short - term disturbing factors, and the price trend of Treasury bond futures will return to its own fundamentals [3]. - As the policy time - window of the Two Sessions approaches, the policy emphasizes the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies. Policy easing is expected to be mainly structural, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward driving force of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [3]. - In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. Overall, the future monetary and credit environment is relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Industry News - On March 2nd, the central bank carried out 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 19 billion yuan, and the winning bid volume was 19 billion yuan. There were no reverse repurchases due on that day, resulting in a net injection of 19 billion yuan [5]. Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2606, T2606, TF2606, TS2606, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [6][9][14]