生猪期货：近弱远强、加速筑底

Market Review and Outlook - From February 24th to 28th, 2026, the national live hog spot price continued the downward trend after the Spring Festival, hitting the bottom during the week and then stabilizing slightly, with the overall decline narrowing. As of February 28th, the average price of national external ternary live hogs dropped to around 10.8 yuan/kg (5.4 yuan/jin), a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from the previous week (February 17th - 23rd), with a weekly decline of about 4.6%. On March 2nd, the national external ternary average price further dropped to 10.79 yuan/kg, showing signs of stopping the decline after hitting a recent low [1]. - The LH05 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Currently, the live hog contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and are accelerating the bottom - building process [2]. Key Factors to Monitor - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | Yuan/head | 356.19 | 357.14 | - 0.95 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | Kilograms | 123.06 | 122.9 | 0.36 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | Yuan/head | - 34 | 7.97 | - 68.8 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | Yuan/head | - 97.76 | - 45.69 | - 68.51 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 26.04 | 26.22 | - 0.85 | Weekly | [4] Report Structure 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - Figure 1 shows the basis of the main contract in yuan/ton [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - Figure 2 shows the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (comprehensive farms) in ten thousand heads [10]. - Figure 3 shows the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial hogs in kilograms [11]. - Figure 4 shows the inventory structure of commercial hogs (by weight) in percentage [14]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Figure 5 shows the start - up rate of key slaughtering enterprises (81 sample enterprises) in percentage [15]. - Figure 6 shows the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises in percentage [18]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - Figure 7 shows the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding (weekly) in yuan/head. Figure 8 shows the profit from self - breeding and self - raising (weekly) in yuan/head [21].