铜：高库存压力不减，等待需求复苏信号

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price continued to fluctuate in the first week after the Spring Festival, with a small increase driven by the external market [2]. - Tariff policy disturbances have temporarily subsided, but the rapid escalation of the US - Iran conflict has boosted market risk - aversion sentiment, yet it has not significantly affected the copper price [2]. - There is a certain divergence in the supply side. Copper concentrates are continuously in short supply upstream, but domestic refined copper production hit a new high in January and is expected to rise again in March, and both domestic and foreign markets have high inventories [2]. - The demand side is on the eve of the transition between the off - season and the peak season. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, but the pace is slow, and the spot is under pressure with continuous discounts. The core contradiction in the market is that downstream demand has not fully recovered [2]. - The market is waiting for the actual performance of peak - season demand to break the deadlock. In the short term, the copper price is expected to remain volatile to gradually digest inventory pressure, and the substantial start of peak - season demand will be the key driving variable for the next stage [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the copper price continued to fluctuate and had a small increase in the first week, driven by the external market [2]. - Macroscopically, tariff policy disturbances paused, and the US - Iran conflict escalated, increasing market risk - aversion sentiment without a significant impact on the copper price [2]. 3.2 Supply Situation - Upstream copper concentrates are in short supply, and the domestic copper concentrate TC remains at a low level [2]. - In January, domestic refined copper production reached a new high, and it is expected to rise again in March [2]. - Both domestic and foreign markets have high - inventory levels [2]. 3.3 Demand Situation - The demand side is at the transition between the off - season and the peak season. Downstream enterprises are resuming work after the festival, but the pace is slow [2]. - The abundant spot supply cannot be fully absorbed by the demand, resulting in continuous spot discounts [2]. - Some enterprises will not fully resume production until after the Lantern Festival [2]. 3.4 Key Concerns - The report suggests paying attention to the latest US economic data, geopolitical changes, and post - festival demand recovery [3]. 3.5 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change Amount | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 101970 | 100275 | 1695 | 1.69% | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 250 | - 5 | - 245 | - 4900.00% | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 51.06 | - 51.17 | 0.11 | 0.21% | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 103090 | 101270 | 1820 | 1.80% | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 253700 | 241825 | 11875 | 4.91% | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 391529 | 272475 | 119054 | 43.69% | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 601541 | 600436 | 1105 | 0.18% | [3]