养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The low point of soybean prices has passed, and the subsequent trend will be an oscillating upward movement [1]. - Corn should be considered from a low - buying perspective, and if there is a pull - back adjustment, it is advisable to actively replenish stocks or buy [2]. - Eggs are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend later, and a low - buying approach is recommended [2]. - The contradiction of oversupply in the pig market may be alleviated, and the decline in pig prices is expected to slow down and reach the bottom. However, there is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in the first half of 2026 [3]. - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The near - term is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4]. Summary by Related Products Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price shows a stable - to - strong trend. Northeast产区 traders' selling prices have increased after the Spring Festival, but new transactions are limited. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Henan indicate slow local bean transactions, and prices are mostly stable. The selling price of Northeast beans in the sales area has increased following the production area, but the increase is smaller [1]. Corn - Northeast deep - processing enterprises have gradually resumed full - scale purchases. Driven by the futures market, the price of deep - processing acquisitions has risen significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. The fuel ethanol enterprise acquisition price has increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the dry - grain acquisition price in Songyuan is 2230 yuan/ton (+50 yuan). The port in Jinzhou is gradually resuming operations, and the shipping demand is still low, with full recovery expected after the Lantern Festival [1]. - The sharp rise in crude oil is beneficial to ethanol enterprises, indirectly driving up the price of corn. A low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. Eggs - Based on the previous chicken - chick sales volume, the supply of newly - laid hens from February to March may decrease, and the inventory of laying hens is expected to slightly decline from the high level. The supply pressure of eggs is expected to be alleviated to some extent. The average monthly inventory of laying hens from January to June 2026 is 1.134 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.02 billion (0.18%) compared to 2025, and an increase of 0.078 billion (7.39%) compared to the average of the previous six years [2]. Pigs - In early February, the domestic pig - to - grain ratio was below 5:1 for three consecutive weeks, meeting the conditions for frozen - meat purchase and storage. After the Spring Festival, the market demand is weak, and the supply is relatively normal, resulting in a situation of oversupply. With the implementation of the purchase - and - storage policy, the contradiction of oversupply may be alleviated. As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal reserve. In January 2026, it slightly decreased to 39.58 million, still above the regulatory red line. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in the first half of 2026 [3].