瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260302

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the effective shipping capacity has rapidly shrunk. Coupled with the resurgence of Trump's tariff war and the cancellation of photovoltaic tax - rebates in April forcing shipments and stockpiling in March, the futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is supported. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern shifts from the off - season's looseness to a tight balance, and the shipping companies' bargaining power is strengthened. If the US - Iran situation worsens and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the freight index is expected to continue rising. In the medium - term, if the blockade is lifted, the oil price drops and the shipping capacity recovers, the freight rate will gradually return to the off - season fundamentals, but it is expected to be higher than the pre - blockade level due to panic and risk - aversion sentiment. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks, and track airline quotes, cargo volume data, and the development of the US - Iran conflict and the subsequent Iranian regime transition [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 186.4 (up); EC second - main contract closing price: 1429.200 (previous value: 1885.1, up 245.80) - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 50.70 (down); EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 455.90 (previous value: - 551.20, down 59.80) - EC contract basis: - 314.91 (down) - EC main contract open interest: 8998 (up) [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1463.40 (down 110.11, 7.0% week - on - week); SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1045.08 (down 66.93) - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1251.46 (down 81.65); container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97 (unchanged) - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1088.14 (up 43.57); CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1508.26 (up 43.97) - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2140.00 (down 23.00); Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1942.00 (down 26.00) - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 28,568.00 (up 1354.00) [2] 3.3 Industry News - Global "black - swan" event: On February 28 local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu announced the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime, and the attack might last at least a week. Trump also claimed that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei "was dead" and the bombing would continue. - Iran's former President Ahmadinejad was assassinated, and several Iranian military commanders died. The Iranian military launched the ninth round of "True Promise 4" attacks on US and Israeli targets. The US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier was reported to be attacked by 4 Iranian ballistic missiles, but the US military denied the attack and said no US warships were damaged or personnel injured. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Wang Yi said that under the promotion of China and Russia, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on the Iranian situation. China called for an immediate stop to military operations, a return to dialogue and negotiation, and opposition to unilateral actions [2] 3.4 Key Points to Follow - March 3, 07:30: Japan's January unemployment rate - March 3, 18:00: Eurozone's February CPI annual rate preliminary value [2]