橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险提振，能化强势上行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The closing price rose 0.91% to 17,245 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 spread widened to 145 yuan/ton. Supported by the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities, the rubber market maintained a bullish trend, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may continue to oscillate strongly [6]. - The methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, strongly rising, and closing sharply higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,365 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,209 yuan/ton, closing with a sharp increase of 8.04% to 2,365 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 spread converged to 2 yuan/ton. Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, methanol exports were stagnant, supply was in short - supply, and the premium of methanol increased significantly. It is expected that the methanol futures price may continue to oscillate strongly [7]. - The crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strongly rising, and closing sharply higher. The price reached a maximum of 527.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 495.0 yuan/barrel, closing with a sharp increase of 8.98% to 527.8 yuan/barrel. Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports were stagnant, supply was in short - supply, and the premium of crude oil increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may continue to oscillate strongly [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons or 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons with a 12% increase, and the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons with a 9.67% increase. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 6.8 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.65 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.36 percentage points [9]. - As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will continue to increase significantly in the next period [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve [10]. - In January 2026, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points, still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.61%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the acetic acid operating rate was 85.73%, a slight week - on - week increase of 5.81%; the MTBE operating rate was 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 2.65% [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 43 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month increase of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 975,300 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of February 25, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 535,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 81,100 tons, and a significant increase of 150,700 tons compared with 384,600 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 0 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.702 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels/day and a slight year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 435.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.899 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [13]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 172,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 137.20%. As of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 300,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 63.04% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 17,245 yuan/ton | +90 yuan/ton | - 245 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,310 yuan/ton | +55 yuan/ton | 2,365 yuan/ton | +186 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 131 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 472.8 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 527.8 yuan/barrel | +39.4 yuan/barrel | - 55 yuan/barrel | - 39.4 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts of rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][23][25][27]. - Methanol: The report provides charts of methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45][47][49][51].