突发事件刺激，铜价震荡偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the intense exchange of fire between the US, Israel, and Iran, market sentiment fluctuated sharply, with the US dollar surging and the RMB falling. The substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to the limit - up of shipping indices and crude oil, and most chemicals soared. Silver and gold both reached new highs since February, and non - ferrous metals rose across the board. The energy factor caused aluminum to lead the gains. Copper prices were affected by multiple factors and showed a short - term volatile and upward trend, with a possible continuation of high - level oscillations in the medium term [4][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Performance - International situation caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The US dollar rose while the RMB fell, shipping and crude oil hit the daily limit, chemicals soared, and precious metals reached new highs. Non - ferrous metals rose across the board, with aluminum leading the gains. Today, LME copper rose, SHFE copper rose, but domestic spot copper prices fell [4] - Today, SHFE copper closed at 103,850, and the spot price was 102,200, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 1,650 points. The spot basis discount was - 190 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount narrowed to - $49, indicating improved foreign spot demand. This week, US copper inventories continued to rise to a new high, and LME and SHFE copper inventories increased significantly [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose to $45.5. Domestic spot demand improved after the Spring Festival. The LME - SHFE copper ratio dropped to 7.71, and the premium of international copper over SHFE copper rose significantly to 370 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one, and market sentiment was strong [4] Technical and Market Sentiment - LME copper rose slightly, trading around $13,360. SHFE copper pulled up and rose sharply in the afternoon, closing at 103,850, with a strong technical pattern. SHFE copper trading volume increased while open interest decreased, and market sentiment was cautious. In the spot market, domestic spot demand was average, LME copper spot demand was poor, and US copper buying declined [5] - Recently, the price difference between US copper and LME copper was close to parity. Driven by the strength of gold and silver, market sentiment recovered. The continuous international tension supported copper prices, but after the confirmation of the successor to the Fed chairman, policy uncertainty increased. After US copper broke through the previous high, market enthusiasm declined, and the uncertainty of AI demand was high, so the upward momentum of copper prices was limited. After the festival, the spot market sentiment recovered, with a short - term volatile and upward trend and a possible continuation of high - level oscillations in the medium term [5] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - SHFE Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | February 24 | 6.8912 | 460 | 54.5 | - 84 | 7.83 | | February 25 | 6.8543 | - 140 | 51 | - 88 | 7.75 | | February 26 | 6.8444 | - 580 | 50.5 | - 77 | 7.73 | | February 27 | 6.8610 | - 1590 | 50.5 | - 70 | 7.73 | | March 2 | 6.8797 | - 1650 | 45.5 | - 49 | 7.71 | [6]