热卷日报：两会限产提供支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求复苏-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot - rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". Price increases depend on demand recovery and policy implementation, while improved export profits, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downside space. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether manufacturing stimulus policies are introduced during the Two Sessions, the actual implementation of production restrictions, and the rise in energy costs due to overseas geopolitical conflicts [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures on Monday had a reduction of 32,410 lots in open interest and a trading volume of 404,093 lots, with increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,206 yuan, the high was 3,239 yuan. In terms of the moving average, the short - term fell back to the 5 - day moving average, and there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It closed at 3,219 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan, a gain of 0.34% [2] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [3] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 21 yuan [4] Fundamental Data - Supply side: Output contracted year - on - year and was basically flat month - on - month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [5] - Demand side: It declined significantly year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year - on - year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, while the slight month - on - month decline reflected that the rhythm of post - festival demand recovery this year was weaker than in previous years [5] - Inventory side: Social inventory increased significantly, while the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, factory inventory accumulated slightly. Social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 169,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished inventory before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 183,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 588,800 tons. Although it increased significantly month - on - month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [5] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing supply - demand pressure. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year - on - year increase to 2.34. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion ability, with a serious supply - demand mismatch, which will suppress the rebound space of hot - rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [6] - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the 14th Five - Year Plan was about to start in 2026, and with the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade - in heated up, but the actual implementation rhythm of post - festival projects was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, 2026, raising concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export - oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted 1 trillion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases on February 13, 2026, releasing medium - and long - term liquidity, which provided marginal support to market sentiment [6] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [7] - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - disturbances [7] Short - Term Viewpoint Summary - On Monday, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures oscillated with a reduction in positions. In the medium term, attention should still be paid to the pressure near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Fundamentally, the hot - rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation, and the improved export profits, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downside space. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether manufacturing stimulus policies are introduced during the Two Sessions, the actual implementation of production restrictions, and the rise in energy costs due to overseas geopolitical conflicts [7]