螺纹日报：两会限产提供短期支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求恢复-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current rebar market is in a stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" with a game between short - term production contraction and weak demand. High inventory suppresses price elasticity. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with limited upward space and downward space supported by costs. If demand significantly recovers in mid - to late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 44,381 lots on Monday, with significantly higher trading volume than the previous trading day (1,029,503 lots). It briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average in the short - term, but faced pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages in the medium - term. The lowest price was 3,050 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,098 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%) [2] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 123 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from the high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower year - on - year. The 2026 production was significantly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4] - Demand: Terminal demand dropped precipitously and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 33,550 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons from the previous week and 157,160 tons lower year - on - year, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was much larger than in previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [4] - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower year - on - year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, up 11,770 tons week - on - week and down 1,430 tons year - on - year. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, up 72,790 tons week - on - week and down 61,410 tons year - on - year. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, up 84,560 tons week - on - week and down 62,840 tons year - on - year. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, it was still much lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [4][5] - Inventory - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - sales ratio was 167.04, up significantly from 135.35 year - on - year. A high inventory - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of steel prices until demand substantially recovers [5] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profitability rate was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The steel mill profitability rate remained in the 38% - 40% range, and the profit could still support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the coking coal imports continued to grow, and the cost support weakened [5] - Macroeconomic aspect: In 2026, the policy expectations for the start of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. The central budgetary investment, underground pipeline network, and urban renewal projects were pre - issued, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short - term, affected by the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on imported goods, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the demand recovery rhythm after the Spring Festival, the market entered a "policy game period" [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory reduction speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6] Short - Term View Summary - On Monday, the rebar main contract fluctuated and consolidated, with a reduction in open interest throughout the day, indicating that funds were cautious due to international geopolitical events. The upper pressure should focus on the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term support should focus on the previous low. The Two Sessions will be held this week, and the expectation of production restrictions during the Two Sessions provides short - term support. The escalation of the US - Iran situation has limited impact on rebar [6]