甲醇：港口库存预期高位下降，震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol prices will be oscillating and strengthening in the near future. Although methanol enterprises' overall profit is poor, domestic methanol production is expected to remain high. This week, port arrivals are expected to increase, and the downstream olefin production is expected to have a stable operating rate. Traditional downstream plants that were shut down or had reduced production are expected to restart, leading to an anticipated rise in the overall downstream methanol operating rate. With an ample supply of methanol, port inventories are expected to decline from a high level. The escalation of the US-Iran situation has raised concerns about a reduction in methanol imports [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market oscillated. The price range in Jiangsu was 2180 - 2270 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2180 - 2260 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market followed the macro sentiment, opening high and closing low, with a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. Inland methanol prices first rose and then fell. The price range in the main production area of Erdos North Line was 1837 - 1867 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price range was 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton. After the festival, the market sentiment fluctuated significantly, and trading volume first increased and then decreased. Main production area enterprises still had a strong willingness to sell, aiming to reduce inventory and speed up sales. Downstream rigid - demand enterprises had high inventories and generally adopted a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [1]. Factors to Watch - Methanol production changes, methanol port inventory changes, and the development of the US - Iran situation [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (Jiangsu) | Yuan/ton | 28 | 22 | 6 | 27.3 | Weekly | | Inland methanol sample enterprise inventory | 10,000 tons | 53.53 | 34.03 | 19.5 | 57.3 | Weekly | | Port methanol inventory | 10,000 tons | 144.67 | 143.22 | 1.45 | 1.0 | Weekly | | Weekly production | 10,000 tons | 207.31 | 207.18 | 0.13 | 0.1 | Weekly | | Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol profit | Yuan/ton | - 223.2 | - 239 | 15.8 | 6.6 | Weekly | | North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol profit | Yuan/ton | 99 | 89 | 10 | 11.2 | Weekly | | Southwest natural gas - to - methanol profit | Yuan/ton | - 290 | - 290 | 0 | 0 | Weekly | | Downstream acetic acid operating rate | % | 84.11 | 84.6 | - 0.49 | - 0.6 | Weekly | | Downstream olefin production operating rate | % | 85.32 | 85.3 | 0.02 | 0 | Weekly | [3] Position Analysis - On February 27, 2026, in terms of trading volume, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) ranked first with 229,508 lots and an increase of 19,475 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) ranked first with 85,355 lots and an increase of 3,613 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) ranked first with 173,187 lots and an increase of 13,705 lots [15].