地缘局势激化短期商品或继续震荡偏强：大宗商品周度报告2026年3月2日-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has intensified, and the commodity market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The resonance of the US dollar and crude oil remains strong. The short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals, and the subsequent trend depends on the development of the war. Different commodity sectors have different trends affected by geopolitical factors and fundamentals [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Overall market: The commodity market rose 3.56% last week, with precious metals leading the rise at 8.55%, followed by non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black metals, with increases of 8.55%, 4.53%, 2.14%, and 0.33% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and the black and energy sectors had large fluctuations. The overall market scale shrank significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [1][5] - Specific varieties: The top - rising varieties were tin, silver, and crude oil, with increases of 23.27%, 16.36%, and 6.01% respectively. The top - falling varieties were coke, coking coal, and PVC, with decreases of 2.76%, 2.45%, and 2.3% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - Precious metals: Short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals to continue to run strongly. The subsequent trend depends on whether the war develops towards negotiation or greater intensity [1] - Non - ferrous metals: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the resource attribute value of the sector has increased, but the US dollar is supported by oil prices, which suppresses the sector. The domestic post - holiday resumption of work is progressing steadily, but the inventory of the sector remains high. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [2] - Black metals: After the holiday, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded month - on - month, the output remains low, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The iron - making water output has increased, but the steel mill profits are still poor, and the subsequent increase rhythm may be relatively slow. The global shipment of iron ore is strong, and the domestic port inventory continues to accumulate and is at a historical high. The coking coal futures price has a premium over Mongolian coal, and it is difficult to decline significantly in the short term [2] - Energy: The US - Iran conflict has escalated to a full - scale military confrontation. Iran has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen rapidly. Geopolitical risks will continue to support crude oil prices [2] - Chemicals: Iran is an important supplier of high - sulfur fuel oil and methanol. The supply of these two varieties has short - term positive drivers. Rising oil prices drive downstream products in the olefin and polyester industries. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol may improve in the second quarter [2] - Agricultural products: External policy disturbances are large. Trump's 10% tariff policy has taken effect, which affects China's soybean imports. Rising crude oil prices drive vegetable oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue. The oil - meal ratio may rise in the short term [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs: Most gold ETFs had positive returns last week, with returns ranging from 3.04% to 3.64%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,314.52 billion yuan, with a 1.02% increase. The trading volume decreased significantly [34] - Other ETFs: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.35%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 1.05%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 2.78%, and the silver fund had a return of 13.54%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 3,550.35 billion yuan, with a 1.24% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 23.55% [34]