铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Iron ore fundamentals show inventory accumulation and limited recovery in back - end demand. With the upcoming Two Sessions, positive macro - expectations and the BACK structure of futures under positive basis limit the further downward space, and the short - term trend is a volatile and moderately strong rebound [4] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures strengthened in intraday trading, closing at 754.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or +0.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 267,000 lots, the open interest was 543,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.009 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 745, and it is still treated with a moderately strong rebound mindset [1] - Port spot prices: PB powder at Qingdao Port was 749 yuan (unchanged), Super Special powder was 638 yuan (unchanged), and the main swap was 99.25 (+1.4) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to rebound and strengthen, while the spot prices remained stable [1] - At the basis and spread end, the converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrivals this period continued to weaken due to weather impacts on the arrival rhythm, but are expected to pick up later. On the demand side, hot metal production increased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, and the rigid demand increased marginally. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory of iron ore stopped increasing. The decline in arrivals and steel mills' replenishment alleviated the port inventory accumulation pressure temporarily, but the overall inventory pressure is still building up. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosted the market sentiment, but may have limited impact on the actual demand in the short term. The Two Sessions are about to be held after the holiday, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policies are coordinated and strengthened, high - frequency consumption is warm, and the real estate market shows marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Real - estate transactions remained at a low level, but the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The quota of special bonds was increased, but the investment structure was adjusted, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support to the black chain [3] - Overseas, consumer confidence is recovering, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium affects the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with Trump's strengthened stance towards Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation is "growth has not stalled, and policy and geopolitical risks have increased" [3]