银河期货苹果日报-20260302

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Apple inventory has decreased significantly recently, and the year-on-year decline in inventory data has widened again. Although apple demand is weak after the Spring Festival, it is about to enter a relatively empty window period for fruit listing in March and April, so apple sales are expected to improve further. Additionally, the cost of apple warehouse receipts this season is high, and the cost of warehouse receipts supports the price of the May contract, which remains in a short - term upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the next - working - day price. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, etc., remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.83, down 0.15 from the next - working - day price [2] - Futures Prices: AP01 is 8470, up 154 from the previous close; AP05 is 9896, up 136; AP10 is 8618, up 167. The spreads between different contracts also show certain changes [2] - Differences: The differences between Qixia first - and second - grade 80 and different futures contracts have changed, such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 being - 470, down 154 from the previous trading day [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - Apple Market News - As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country is 552.92 million tons, a decrease of 19.08 million tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 18.11 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% [7] - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume for the whole year of 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7] - The origin market was basically stable last Friday. Over the weekend, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas increased significantly, and the prices of some specifications of goods showed a firm trend. The transaction in the Shandong producing area was stable, and the price changed little. The market arrivals increased, and the price remained stable [7] - The spot prices of apples in Shaanxi and Shandong showed different trends. In Shaanxi, the prices of some apples increased slightly, and in Shandong, the prices were relatively stable. There was good demand for small fruits [7] - Trading Logic: The出库 data before the Spring Festival was good, the inventory decreased significantly, and the demand is expected to improve. The high cost of warehouse receipts supports the price of the May contract, which shows a short - term upward trend [5] - Trading Strategy - For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract [8] - For the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Third Part: Related Attachments - There are 10 figures, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 and Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the country, and the outbound volume of apples in the country [10][11][13]