棉花、棉纱日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have certain support. Global cotton production has been adjusted down by 3%, with a 9% reduction in China's output. The supply - demand situation is relatively tight, and there may be a tight - balance situation if consumption continues to increase. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. For the short - term, it is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. One can consider building long positions on dips but not chasing high prices. For the cotton yarn industry, the trading has recovered to some extent, but the new orders for cotton - fabric are few, and the manufacturers' attitude is cautious [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15630, 15225, and 15305 respectively, with price drops of 95, 170, and 90. The closing prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts are 21100 and 21150 respectively, both with a price drop of 145. The CY01 contract has no trading data [2]. - Spot Market: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16633 yuan/ton, down 80; the price of CY IndexC32S is 21920, up 50. The price of Cot A is 75.65 cents/pound, and the price of FCY IndexC33S is 21517, up 54. The price of polyester staple fiber is 7450, up 70, and the price of pure polyester yarn T32S is 11130, unchanged. The price of viscose staple fiber is 12800, unchanged, and the price of viscose yarn R30S is 17330, unchanged [2]. - Spread: In the cotton inter - period spread, the 1 - 5 spread is 405, up 75; the 5 - 9 spread is - 80, down 80; the 9 - 1 spread is - 325, up 5. In the cotton yarn inter - period spread, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21100, up 145; the 5 - 9 spread is - 50, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread is 21150, down 145. The CY01 - CF01 spread is 15630, up 95; the CY05 - CF05 spread is 5875, up 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread is 5845, down 55. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread is 3688, up 137; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread is 2691, up 83; the internal - external yarn spread is 403, down 4 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: On March 2, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1465 yuan/ton·km, a 4.87% increase from the previous day. From February 19 to February 26, 2026, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin decreased by 1.9 billion liters. The current reservoir water storage is 10.694 billion liters, equivalent to 48% of the total capacity, 20% (2.69 billion liters) less than the same period last year. In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month. The import value was 324.278 billion yen (equivalent to 1.78 billion US dollars), a 6.33% year - on - year decrease and a 16.45% month - on - month increase. In December 2026, the clothing import volume was 80,600 tons, a 5.99% year - on - year decrease and a 10.01% month - on - month increase [5]. - Trading Logic: The fundamentals of cotton have certain support. Global cotton production has been adjusted down by 3%, with a 9% reduction in China's output. The supply - demand situation is relatively tight, and there may be a tight - balance situation if consumption continues to increase. As of February 12, the contracted volume of US cotton was 105,700 tons, a 53,300 - ton increase from the previous period, and the cumulative contracted volume was 1.9279 million tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [6]. - Trading Strategy: For the short - term, it is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. One can consider building long positions on dips but not chasing high prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - Cotton Yarn Industry News: Some manufacturers raised their quotes over the weekend, but the actual transactions were few. The trading has recovered to some extent, and traders and downstream fabric mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases with a cautious attitude. The cotton yarn inventory has decreased. The overall trading atmosphere of all - cotton grey fabric is weak. After the price quotes of grey fabric recovered, most of them were raised. For the peak season in March, manufacturers said they would take it one step at a time. Currently, there are few new orders, and fabric mills are cautious, with low purchasing enthusiasm and a strong wait - and - see attitude [9][10]. 3.3 Options - Option Data: On January 19, 2026, for the CF605C14600.CZC option, the closing price was 334, a 16.9% decrease, with an implied volatility of 13.3%. For the CF605C14200.CZC option, the closing price was 511, a 17.7% decrease, with an implied volatility of 11.3%. For the CF605P13800.CZC option, the closing price was 60, a 34.1% decrease, with an implied volatility of 11.2%. The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the volatility increased slightly compared to the previous day [12]. - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton spread under 1% tariff, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis of cotton, the CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and the CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][20][22][25].