碳酸锂月度策略报告-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium concentrate exports has raised market concerns about supply. In 2026, Zimbabwe was originally expected to supply around 200,000 tons of LCE, accounting for 10% of the global total supply. The policy details and impact duration are currently unknown. It may affect the actual supply starting from mid - late April to May. If the suspension lasts a long time, the possibility of supplementary shipments after resumption should be watched. [5] - Lithium ore supply is tight both in reality and in expectation, leading to an increase in lithium ore quotes and auction prices, which is a strong positive factor for the fundamentals. [5] - In terms of supply, the supply in March is expected to increase significantly month - on - month due to post - holiday production resumption in China and an expected increase in imports. In terms of demand, affected by the maintenance of some cathode manufacturers in January and the Spring Festival in February, the month - on - month change is not sufficient to explain the situation. Compared with December last year, the cathode production schedules of several third - party institutions have basically increased by 0 - 4%. From the perspective of supply - demand balance, if it is the same as in December last year, there may be a tight balance in March; if there is an increase, it will turn to inventory depletion. [5] - The current social inventory has decreased to around 100,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days are less than one month. Continuous inventory depletion will also be a positive support. If the price corrects, the downstream's willingness to stock up will emerge. If the overseas export situation does not improve, it may further boost the bullish sentiment. However, although the winning bid price of energy storage has increased slightly, it takes time for raw material prices to be transmitted downstream. Considering the immediate profit of LFP cells, maintaining a price above 200,000 yuan/ton may lead to negative feedback from the end - users. [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - The overall price of the industrial chain this month showed relative strength, with a 4% monthly increase in lithium carbonate. [6] - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract increased from 148,200 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, to 176,040 yuan/ton on February 27, 2026, a rise of 27,840 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,839 tons to 100,093 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased by 4,471 tons to 40,021 tons, the inventory in other links increased by 170 tons to 41,690 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 1,462 tons to 18,382 tons. [4][6][22] 3.3 Production 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 1,638 tons to 21,822 tons. Among them, the lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 1,460 tons to 13,484 tons, the lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,812 tons, the lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 250 tons to 3,290 tons, and the lithium extraction from recycling increased by 78 tons to 2,236 tons. [4][6] - In February 2026, the total production of lithium carbonate was 81,930 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% or 15,970 tons. [49] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - The weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 664 tons to 15,617 tons, and the inventory decreased by 533 tons to 17,234 tons. [4][6][67] 3.3.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 300 tons to 89,150 tons, and the inventory increased by 459 tons to 92,556 tons. [4][6][69] 3.3.4 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells increased by 11.6% to 26 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron batteries increased by 11.1% to 20 GWh, and the production of ternary batteries increased by 13.2% to 6 GWh. [4][6][73] 3.3.5 Lithium Batteries - In February 2026, the production of lithium batteries was expected to decrease by 11% month - on - month to 171.71 GWh. Among them, the production of ternary batteries decreased by 16% to 26.54 GWh, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10% to 138.73 GWh, and the production of other batteries decreased by 25% to 6.45 GWh. [6] 3.4 Terminal Markets 3.4.1 New Energy Vehicles - According to the China Passenger Car Association, after the holiday, the price - cut promotion ability of new energy vehicle manufacturers is expected to decline. The weak price elasticity makes consumers more cautious, which may suppress the normal release of car - buying demand in the short term. Price anti - involution is a long - term benefit, which helps to improve the wait - and - see attitude of car - buying and guide the healthy development of industrial consumption. [4][6][87] 3.4.2 Energy Storage - According to CNESA, in January, the new installed capacity was 3.8 GW/10.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 62%/106%. The new energy storage market started well. [4][6][88]