——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1）：钢铁股迎来春季躁动行情-20260302

Investment Rating - The steel and non-ferrous metals sector is rated as "Overweight" (Maintain) [5] Core Insights - The steel sector is experiencing a seasonal rally, with high-frequency data indicating a potential recovery in profitability towards historical average levels due to tightening export policies and supply-side adjustments [4][19] - The liquidity indicators show a significant increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings, reaching a five-year high, which may influence market sentiment [10][15] - The construction and real estate sectors are showing signs of improvement, with high furnace capacity utilization rates expected to be at the highest level for the same period in five years [19][40] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings reached 1101.33 tons, up 2.09% week-on-week [10] - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are at $6.57 trillion, reflecting a 0.01% increase [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.1 percentage points in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [15] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 87.45%, up 1.04 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The price of rebar is at 3200 CNY/ton, down 0.31% week-on-week, with a production of 1.6723 million tons [40] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.08%, while the cement operating rate increased by 13.5 percentage points [59] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for January was 49.20% [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has surpassed 800,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 15.27% increase week-on-week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 23,350 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 6,266 CNY/ton [2] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar is at 50 CNY/ton, indicating a stable market condition [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.13, suggesting a competitive pricing environment [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel is at a ratio of 0.09, indicating market dynamics [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for January was 47.80%, down 1.2 percentage points [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1044.57 points, down 4.00% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 78.50%, up 0.70 percentage points [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.08%, with the best-performing sector being the general steel sector, which rose by 12.27% [4] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.55, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry is at 136 CNY/ton, reflecting a 5.9% decrease week-on-week [9]