南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告：巴西降雨不均收获放缓，阿根廷进入生长关键期

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including the impact of rainfall on soybean harvest and growth, and the market's different expectations for soybean production in Brazil [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - Harvest Progress: The 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Brazil is 32.3%, with 31.2% still in the filling stage. In Mato Grosso, the harvest progress is 78.34%, lower than 82.30% in the same period last year, mainly due to frequent rainfall [1][24] - Regional Impact: In Goiás, excessive rainfall affects grain quality; in Mato Grosso do Sul, rainfall suspends harvest in some cities but benefits filling soybeans; in Minas Gerais, excessive rainfall promotes fungal diseases; in Paraná, dry weather helps crop maturity but affects the production potential of filling plots; in Rio Grande do Sul, irregular and light rainfall is insufficient for crop needs [1][25] - Production Expectations: Market expectations for Brazilian soybean production vary. Safra&Mercado Consulting Company lowers the production by 1.5 million tons to 177.7 million tons, while Rabobank raises it by 2 million tons to 181 million tons. USDA's NDVI reading shows that the production potential has significantly declined [1][25] - Future Forecast: In the next 15 days, the rainfall distribution in Brazil is uneven, and the southern region still lacks rainfall [1][25] Argentina - Crop Conditions: The rainfall for soybean crops is good. The proportion of crops in good condition or above is 71%, a 4% week-on-week decrease but still higher than in previous years. The proportion of crops with suitable moisture or above is 73%, a 7% week-on-week increase [2][45] - Key Growth Stage: Currently, 58% of the country's soybeans are in the key stage of determining yield (filling and later). In the two core producing areas, more than half of the early-sown soybeans have entered the filling stage with less water restriction [2][45] - Production Forecast: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture maintains the forecast of this season's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. USDA's overall NDVI reading for Argentina has slowly increased in the past few weeks and is currently above the average [2][45] - Future Forecast: Argentina will have dry weather in the next 5 days, and precipitation will occur in the next 6 - 10 days, but the southern region will still be dry [2][45] International Soybean Annual Focus - Different months have different focuses, including US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, Chinese imports, US and Chinese sowing areas, and US yield levels [63] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - The growth cycle includes the planting period, flowering period, growth period, and harvest period, each with specific temperature, moisture, and weather requirements, as well as corresponding disaster risks [71]