宏观固收周报：关注通胀预期提升带来的长期影响-20260302

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the past week (20260223 - 20260301), US stocks declined while the Hang Seng Index rose. NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.95%, -0.44%, and -1.31% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 0.82% [3] - A - shares generally rose, with bulk resource products leading the gains. The wind all - A index changed by 2.75%, and various A - share indices also showed different degrees of increase [4][5] - In the past week, most maturity varieties of China's treasury bond yields increased, and the 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.10% compared to February 13, 2026. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.46 BP to 1.7753% compared to February 14, 2026 [6] - The US Treasury yield curve shifted downward as a whole. As of February 27, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield changed by - 11 BP to 3.97% compared to February 20, 2026 [7] - The US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index decreased by 0.10%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.25%, 0.09%, and 0.72% respectively. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate also declined [8] - Gold prices rose. London gold spot price rose 3.35% to $5222.30 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures price rose 4.12% to $5280.00 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased [10] - The situation in Iran has escalated. If the situation further intensifies, the Strait of Hormuz may be seriously threatened, which may have a great impact on global crude oil transportation and inflation expectations [11] - Rising oil prices may drive up US inflation expectations. The Fed's actual performance in 2026 may be more hawkish than the current market expectations [12] - In the A - share market, there are relatively certain short - term structural opportunities. It is recommended to focus on four directions: commercial aerospace, military industry; precious metals such as gold and silver; oil and gas, petrochemicals; and shipping. In the bond market, China's central bank may still cut interest rates in 2026, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield around 1.80% has long - term investment value. If the Fed is more hawkish than expected, the US dollar may strengthen, and precious metals and other commodities may face long - term price pressure [13] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Stock Market - US stocks: NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by -0.95%, -0.44%, and -1.31% respectively in the past week [3] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% in the past week [3] - A - shares: The wind all - A index rose 2.75%. Among them,中证 A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 1.01%, 1.08%, 4.32%, 4.34%, 3.94%, and 3.12% respectively. In terms of sectors, blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all rose, and 24 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with steel, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals leading the gains [5] Bond Market - China's treasury bonds: Most maturity varieties of yields increased. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.10% compared to February 13, 2026, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.46 BP to 1.7753% compared to February 14, 2026 [6] - US Treasury bonds: The yield curve shifted downward as a whole. As of February 27, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield changed by - 11 BP to 3.97% compared to February 20, 2026 [7] Exchange Rate and Commodities - Exchange rate: The US dollar index decreased by 0.10%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate declined, with the US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate falling 0.52% to 6.8612 and the US dollar - onshore RMB exchange rate falling 0.66% to 6.8559 as of February 27, 2026 [8] - Commodities: Gold prices rose. London gold spot price rose 3.35% to $5222.30 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures price rose 4.12% to $5280.00 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased [10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic - Geopolitical situation: On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, and Iran retaliated. If the situation escalates, the Strait of Hormuz may be threatened, affecting global crude oil transportation [11] - Macroeconomic impact: Rising oil prices may drive up US inflation expectations, and the Fed's actual performance in 2026 may be more hawkish than expected [12] Market Outlook - A - shares: There are short - term structural opportunities. It is recommended to focus on commercial aerospace, military industry, precious metals, oil and gas, and shipping [13] - Bond market: China's central bank may cut interest rates in 2026, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield around 1.80% has long - term investment value [13] - Commodities and exchange rates: If the Fed is more hawkish than expected, the US dollar may strengthen, and precious metals and other commodities may face long - term price pressure [13]