2026年3月橡胶策略报告-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year due to increased consumption driven by the growth of the automotive industry in emerging and developed economies. The supply of natural rubber will enter a low - production season in March, while the downstream demand for tires is expected to see strong repair momentum in March, which will support the rubber price. It is predicted that the rubber price will show a strong and volatile trend in March. For butadiene rubber, although there are more maintenance plans in March and downstream demand is supportive, the inventory level suppresses the price, and it is expected to show a volatile and slightly strong trend [109][110]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Futures price: From January 30 to February 27, 2026, the RU main contract increased by 795 yuan/ton, the NR main contract increased by 530 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract decreased by 760 yuan/ton [5]. - Basis: During the same period, the RU main contract basis increased by 5 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis increased by 74 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 360 yuan/ton [7]. - Monthly spread: The RU - NR spread on February 27, 2026 was 3303 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 244 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 829 yuan/ton [12]. - Price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber: The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber has fallen from a high level, but the substitution effect of synthetic rubber still exists [17]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of Thai standard rubber on February 26, 2026 was - 115.15 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 140.81 US dollars/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 151.68 US dollars/ton [18]. - Production cost and profit of butadiene rubber: On February 26, 2026, the production cost of butadiene rubber was 13006 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 824 yuan/ton; the production profit was - 6 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 412 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 76 yuan/ton [21]. 2. Supply - Global natural rubber production: In 2025, the global natural rubber production increased by 1.4%, and it is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. The overall demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.7% to 15.6 million tons [25]. - Production in major producing areas: In March, Southeast Asian main producing areas enter the low - production season. The production in major producing areas such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam has maintained a relatively stable trend [29][33]. - Export volume: The cumulative year - on - year increase in the export volume of major producing countries has declined. For example, Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports in January 2026 decreased by 10% year - on - year [39]. - China's import volume: China's natural rubber import volume has increased year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber was 803,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24.8% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [45]. - Butadiene supply: In March, the supply pressure of butadiene increases. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on February 27, 2026 was 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year increase of 0.03%. There are new production capacity plans in 2026 and 2027, and there are also many equipment maintenance plans [49][52][54]. - Butadiene rubber production: In January 2026, the production of butadiene rubber was 149,933 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6313 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,067 tons. There are many equipment maintenance plans in 2026, mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters [57][60][61]. - Butadiene rubber import and export: In December 2025, the import volume of butadiene rubber was 29,123 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the export volume was 27,971 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 20.1% [62]. 3. Demand - Automobile policy: The implementation details of the subsidy for replacing old cars with new ones in 2026 have been released. The policy for new energy vehicles to be exempted from vehicle purchase tax has partially retreated since January 1, 2026. In January 2026, the domestic passenger car retail volume decreased year - on - year, but the export market reached a record high [67]. - Tire start - up: In March, tire start - up recovers. The average start - up rate of all - steel tires in February was 36.31%, a decrease of 25.33 percentage points compared with January; the average start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 45.26%, a decrease of 26.55 percentage points compared with January [69]. - Tire export: The export demand for tires has weakened. In 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [76]. - Automobile production and sales: The production and sales of automobiles have steadily advanced. The demand for heavy - duty trucks has stabilized and strengthened [77][78]. 4. Inventory - Qingdao natural rubber inventory: As of February 6, 2026, the bonded inventory was 106,900 tons, the general trade inventory was 502,400 tons, and the total inventory was 609,300 tons, with an increase of 1200 tons, 16,900 tons, and 18,100 tons respectively compared with January 30 [82]. - Exchange inventory of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber: As of February 27, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 114,470 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 124,980 tons; the No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 50,601 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 52,416 tons [85]. - Butadiene rubber inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons [87]. 5. Position - RU main contract total position: The total position of the RU main contract shows certain fluctuations [90]. - NR and BR positions: On February 27, 2026, the total position of natural rubber was 238,035 hands, the total position of No. 20 rubber was 105,322 hands, and the total position of BR was 107,736 hands. Compared with January 30, the position of natural rubber increased by 13,819 hands, the position of No. 20 rubber decreased by 534 hands, and the position of BR decreased by 46,960 hands [92]. 6. Options - Natural rubber options: Include historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and position [96][100]. - Butadiene rubber options: Include historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and position [102][105].