银行信贷收支研究系列之一：开门红时期，存款搬家了吗？

Core Insights - In January 2026, the banking sector exhibited characteristics of "stable corporate lending, weak household lending; short-term support, long-term drag," indicating a slightly weaker performance overall [1][2] - The deposit side showed a historical low growth rate of 7.19% for household deposits, with a marginal strengthening trend in the "deposit migration index," although deposits mainly remained in banks in the form of "non-bank deposits," leading to a relatively ample liability side for banks [1][3] - The gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened to a high of 3.78 percentage points, forcing banks to seek allocation in the bond market, providing rigid buying support for interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds [1][9] Group 1: Observations on the Opening Month - The credit side primarily showed characteristics of "stable corporate lending, weak household lending; short-term support, long-term drag," with a slightly weaker performance, indicating that the recovery of real financing demand requires continuous policy support [2] - On the deposit side, the characteristics were "strong non-bank and corporate deposits, weak household deposits, and overall ample liquidity" [3] - Household deposit growth fell to a historical low of 7.19%, with a noticeable trend of "deposit migration," but still mainly in the form of "non-bank deposits" remaining on bank balance sheets [3][4] Group 2: Household Deposit Migration - The decline in household deposit growth is seen as a "signal of deposit migration," with January 2026's growth rate at 7.19%, the lowest since 2022 [4][6] - The "deposit migration index" showed a marginal strengthening trend, rising to around 16 points, driven mainly by the "difference in growth rates between household and corporate deposits and M2" [5][6] - Migrated household deposits primarily remain in banks as "non-bank deposits," indicating that the overall liability side of banks remains ample [7] Group 3: Loan and Deposit Growth Rate Gap - The gap between deposit and loan growth rates continued to widen, reaching a historical high of 3.78 percentage points in January 2026, indicating a structural asset shortage in the banking system [9] - The ample liability side of banks has led to a forced shift of funds towards the bond market, providing support for interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds [9] - This accumulation of funds is expected to maintain liquidity in the interbank market, pushing down the central rate of funds and further opening up downward space for bond market yields [9]