南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：降雨集中在沙巴地区，留意产量后续是否受到影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The La Nina phenomenon has persisted since the end of 2025, but no significant impacts have been observed so far [1] - The rainfall distribution in the Malay Archipelago remains uneven this week, with most areas in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia receiving more rain, while the southern part of the Malay Peninsula has less rainfall [1] - The soil moisture in the southern Malay Peninsula is still dry, with little chance of improvement in March and April. However, the rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak is adequate, and the soil moisture is good across the country. In Indonesia, most areas have seen a recovery in rainfall this week, but the deep - layer soil moisture in Riau, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra continues to decline, and there may be a drought risk in March and April if the rainfall does not improve [1] - In the short term, Sabah may experience a heavy rainfall process. Prolonged rainfall may lead to a short - term decline in production, but overall, the soil moisture is conducive to an increase in annual production [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1 and remained so until the end of January 2026. As of the end of December 2025, the El Niño index was - 0.55, and the positive value of the Southern Oscillation Index indicates the persistence of the La Nina phenomenon [1] 3.2 Rainfall Forecast in Producing Areas - The rainfall in Malaysia remains uneven, and Sabah is facing heavy rainfall [4] 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - In March, the soil moisture in most areas of Indonesia has improved, but the soil in the Malay Peninsula is still dry [17] 3.4 Specific Conditions of Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Jambi: The rainfall has improved, and the soil moisture is expected to rise [23] - West Kalimantan: The rainfall has increased, and the soil moisture has improved [29] - Central Kalimantan: The rainfall shows an increasing trend, and the soil moisture is being restored [36] - East Kalimantan: Heavy rain occurred at the end of February, and the soil moisture continues to recover [44] - Riau: The rainfall has limited improvement, and the soil moisture continues to decline [52] - South Sumatra: The rainfall has increased, and the soil moisture may improve [59] - North Sumatra: The rainfall is expected to recover, and the soil moisture has not deteriorated further [65] 3.5 Specific Conditions of Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Johor: There is almost no rainfall, and the soil moisture continues to decline [70] - Pahang: The rainfall is still scarce, and the soil moisture has insufficient improvement [77] - Perak: The rainfall slightly recovered in February, which may prevent further drought [84] - Sabah: The accumulated rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - Sarawak: The rainfall is adequate, and the soil moisture continues to rise [96]