光大期货钢材策略月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In March, the demand for the steel market will pick up, but the performance of the automotive and home - appliance sectors is weak, and the intensity of demand release remains to be seen. The supply increase in March may be more obvious, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market are still weak, with significant inventory digestion pressure in some regions. However, the pre - Spring Festival decline in steel prices has largely priced in the bearish factors of spot selling pressure under high inventory. Currently, most winter - storage resources of traders are in the red, and steel price valuations are at a low level. The widening domestic - foreign price gap keeps steel exports at a high level. With strong expectations of macro - policy easing and market anticipation of crude steel production reduction and anti - involution policies in 2026, market sentiment is stable. It is expected that the domestic steel market will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in March, and attention should be paid to the statements of important meetings [160]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In February, black - series commodities fluctuated and declined, with raw materials falling more than steel products and futures falling more than spot. For example, the price of螺纹2605 dropped from 3,128 yuan/ton to 3,067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% [6]. - In the international market in February, hot - rolled coil prices in most regions rose, except in the US import and Japanese markets. The prices of US, EU steel mills, and South American exports increased significantly [7]. - In February, the basis of 05 - contract rebar and hot - rolled coil expanded. The rebar basis increased from 122 yuan/ton to 143 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis increased from - 18 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton [9]. - In February, most rebar spot prices fell slightly, with price drops in various regions ranging from 10 to 60 yuan [11]. - In February, hot - rolled coil spot prices showed mixed trends. Prices in Guangzhou, Shenyang, and Chengdu rose by 10 - 30 yuan, while those in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Wuhan fell by 20 - 30 yuan [18]. - In February, the price difference between rebar and billet narrowed, the price difference between first - and third - tier resources in East China remained flat, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel narrowed [28]. 3.2 Supply - In mid - February, the daily average output of pig iron and crude steel of key steel enterprises increased by 4.06% and 4.29% respectively compared with the previous period [46]. - In February, the weekly output of rebar decreased significantly, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased slightly, and the weekly output of the five major steel products decreased. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 199.83 tons to 165.10 tons [52]. - In February, the weekly output of rebar in the northern region increased slightly, while that in the eastern and southern regions decreased significantly [59]. - In February, the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily average pig - iron output all increased [68]. - In February, the electric - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased significantly, and the scrap - steel inventory of steel mills decreased significantly [76]. 3.3 Demand - In February, the national building - materials trading volume, the delivery volume of rebar in Hangzhou, and the national cement delivery volume all decreased. The national building - materials trading volume decreased from 96,296 tons to 67,985 tons [84]. - In February, the trading volume in the northern, southern, and eastern regions decreased comprehensively, and the operating rate of cement mills decreased significantly [91]. - In February, the apparent demand for rebar decreased significantly, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased. The apparent demand for rebar decreased from 176.4 tons to 80.54 tons [98]. - In February, the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, while the passenger - car sales remained relatively stable [105]. 3.4 Inventory - In February, the inventory of the five major steel products increased significantly by 567.6 tons, and the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar was 134.27 tons [112]. - In February, the total rebar inventory increased significantly by 325.07 tons, and the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar was 95.22 tons [116]. - In February, the rebar inventory in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou all increased [123]. - In February, the total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 96.57 tons, and the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar was 37.83 tons [129]. - In February, the hot - rolled coil inventory in Shanghai, Chengdu, Lecong, and Tianjin all increased [135]. 3.5 Profit - In February, the profit per ton of blast - furnace steel mills in Jiangsu increased, and the loss of electric - furnace steel mills during peak - electricity hours narrowed. The profit per ton of Jiangsu steel mills increased from 23 yuan/ton to 58 yuan/ton [141]. - In February, the on - paper profit of the 05 - contract rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The on - paper profit of rebar increased from - 23 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil increased from 2 yuan/ton to 26 yuan/ton [138]. 3.6 Transaction Data - In February, the positions, trading volume, and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [144]. 3.7 Rebar Options - Relevant data on historical volatility and the historical volatility cone of rebar options are presented [148]. - The ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volume of rebar options in relation to the closing price is shown [151]. 3.8 Other Factors - Bullish factors include the expectation of macro - policy easing, the inventory shifting to the digestion stage, the positive sentiment in the commodity market, and production restrictions of some steel mills during important meetings [155]. - Bearish factors include high - level inventory accumulation, the expected increase in overall steel - mill production, weak performance in real - estate and infrastructure, and increased export pressure on steel mills [155].