Shanghai Aijian Securities·2026-03-02 11:56Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [3]. Core Insights - The production of photovoltaic modules is expected to be around 34-35 GW in February 2026, with a month-on-month decrease of approximately 12-13%. Domestic production is about 25-26 GW, while overseas production remains stable at around 10 GW [3]. - The lithium battery production in March 2026 is projected to increase by 16.5% month-on-month, with a total production of 219 GWh in China and 232 GWh globally, indicating a strong recovery in industry capacity [3]. - The average price of polysilicon dense material is reported at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the price of TOPCon double-glass modules remains stable at 0.74 CNY/W [3]. - In December 2025, the export value of photovoltaic modules reached approximately 2.314 billion USD, marking an 18.22% year-on-year increase [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic installed capacity in December 2025 was 40.11 GW, showing a year-on-year growth of 82.15% [3]. Summary by Sections Production - The production of lithium batteries is expected to increase in March 2026, with a significant recovery in capacity observed [4][6]. Prices - The prices of photovoltaic components and lithium batteries have shown stability, with specific prices reported for various components [3][7]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installed capacity has seen significant growth, with a total of 315.00 GW added in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.65% [3][19]. Overseas Demand - The export of inverters and photovoltaic modules has shown varied performance, with significant growth in certain regions, particularly Australia [3][24].