黑色金属日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The steel market is mainly in shock, with the demand and inventory of different products showing different trends, and the rebound sustainability is insufficient [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in shock, affected by factors such as global shipments, domestic arrivals, and terminal demand [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are both in a strong shock, with abundant carbon element supply, and the prices are difficult to decline significantly under the influence of market sentiment and policy expectations [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in an upward shock, affected by factors such as cost, demand, and policy expectations [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The post-festival thread steel apparent demand rebounds month-on-month, production remains low, and inventory continues to accumulate; hot-rolled coil demand rebounds month-on-month, production remains stable, and inventory continues to accumulate with relatively high pressure [2] - After the festival, blast furnace resumes production, and hot metal production increases, but the steel mill profit is still poor, and the subsequent rebound rhythm may be relatively slow [2] - The real estate investment decline continues to expand, and the new house sales during the Spring Festival are poor; the infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to decline, and the domestic demand is still weak, while the steel export remains at a high level [2] - The steel plate gradually stabilizes, but the rebound sustainability is relatively insufficient, and there may still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The global shipments of iron ore are at a high level and increase month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year; the domestic arrivals are basically the same as the previous period and higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory returns to near the high point of the year [3] - After the festival, the terminal demand warms up, and the hot metal production increases, but the resumption of production of steel mills may be affected by the important domestic meeting [3] - The external geopolitical conflict intensifies, and attention should be paid to the change of the overall risk preference of the market [3] Coke - The coking profit is average, and the daily output increases slightly; the coke inventory decreases slightly, and the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at the off-season level, and the steel profit level is average [4] - The coke plate is at a premium, and the market still has expectations for the "anti-involution" related policies. Under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the price is difficult to decline significantly [4] Coking Coal - The daily price is in a strong shock, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal yesterday was 1,346 vehicles [6] - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage [6] - The spot auction transactions increase gradually this week, and the transaction price mainly decreases slightly on the basis of the shock decline of the plate price; the terminal inventory decreases significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival [6] - The total inventory of coking coal decreases significantly, and the production end inventory decreases significantly [6] - The coking coal plate is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market still has expectations for the "anti-involution" related policies. The customs clearance data of Mongolian coal recovers rapidly. Under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the price is difficult to decline significantly [6] Silicon Manganese - The international conflict has a positive impact on the crude oil price, which in turn affects the manganese ore shipping cost, which is relatively beneficial to the cost side of silicon manganese [7] - The spot manganese ore transaction price increases slightly, the manganese ore port inventory begins to accumulate, and the mine end shipment increases month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price concession space may be relatively limited [7] - The hot metal production on the demand side increases slowly, the weekly output of silicon manganese increases slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver [7] - The silicon manganese inventory accumulates slightly, and the market has strong expectations for the next month's meeting policy [7] Ferrosilicon - The electricity price in the Inner Mongolia production area increases, the semi-coke price decreases slightly, and the main production area is still mainly in a loss state [8] - The hot metal production on the demand side remains at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The metal magnesium production increases month-on-month, the secondary demand increases marginally, and the overall demand still has toughness [8] - The ferrosilicon supply changes little, the inventory decreases slightly, and the market has strong expectations for the next month's meeting policy [8]