贵金属日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading operability [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with unclear short - term trend and low trading operability [1] - Platinum: Suggest to lay out long positions at low levels with high safety margins [2] - Palladium: Participate by buying at low prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term gold market fluctuations are mainly due to emotional swings after the start of the US - Iran war. It is recommended to take profits for long positions after the price rises. The medium - term impact will be determined by the war's development [1] - If the US and Israel achieve an overwhelming victory and regime change in Iran, gold may face a downward risk. If Iran conducts a strong retaliation and the war expands, gold prices will remain high but with more frequent fluctuations [1] - In the long run, factors such as the economic outlook after the oil price increase, Fed policies, Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, global trade situation, and US mid - term elections need to be concerned [1] - This week, attention should be paid to the war progress and the impact of important data such as US non - farm payrolls on Fed policy expectations [1] - Platinum has rebounded after the festival, and the platinum - palladium price difference has widened, but the further widening space is limited. The financial premium space of platinum and palladium may narrow, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low levels [2] - Palladium's supply - side narrative is strengthening, its demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are improving. It is advisable to buy at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iran Situation - Trump said that the new Iranian leadership hopes to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to dialogue [3] - Trump claimed to have killed 48 Iranian leaders and basically destroyed the Iranian naval headquarters, and the US military said it destroyed the Revolutionary Guard headquarters [3] - An Iranian interim leadership committee has been established, with the Iranian president as one of the main members [3] - The Iranian foreign minister said Iran is open to efforts to ease tensions, and new leader elections may be seen in the next few days [3] - The Israeli prime minister said the strike on Iran will be strengthened in the next few days [3] - Trump said the military action against Iran may last for 4 weeks [3] Middle - East Shipping Throat - There are a large number of oil tankers stranded outside the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Many shipping companies may detour around the Cape of Good Hope, and shipping costs may rise [3]