甲醇日报：美伊冲突升级，甲醇涨停-20260302

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis. Considering Iran's influence on methanol exports and the Strait of Hormuz's impact on shipping, the impact on methanol is significant. Methanol hit the daily limit, breaking through the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line, opening up upward space. In the short term, as the event continues to unfold, methanol is in a pattern where it is easier to rise than to fall. A low - buying strategy is recommended, and close attention should be paid to the external situation [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 144.67 million tons, an increase of 1.45 million tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased slightly by 0.05 million tons, while that in South China increased by 1.50 million tons. The methanol port inventory accumulated slightly after the holiday. Although the unloading speed of foreign ships was average, the holiday restricted提货, affecting consumption. In Jiangsu, some warehouses along the Yangtze River had ship - supported pick - ups, but truck pick - ups were scarce, and inventory accumulated under foreign ship supply. In Zhejiang, downstream performance was stable, and less ship unloading led to inventory decline. In South China this week, the port inventory increased slightly. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic ship cargoes arrived during the period, and the pick - up volume in the mainstream warehouses decreased significantly due to the holiday, resulting in inventory accumulation. In Fujian, there was no ship cargo replenishment, and the consumption speed slowed down due to the decrease in downstream start - up, with pick - up performance being average and inventory decreasing slightly [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 27, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, emphasizing the need to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and strengthening the coordination of reform measures and macro - policies. - The People's Bank of China decided to reduce the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 starting from March 2, 2026. - On March 1 local time, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated. - Shipping industry news showed that three oil tankers were attacked and damaged in the waters along the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, shipping data showed that more than 200 vessels, including oil and liquefied gas tankers, were anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis The conflict between the US and Iran has broken out, with a scale and degree far exceeding previous ones. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis, which has a huge impact on methanol. Methanol hit the daily limit, breaking through the resistance of the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line, opening up upward space. In the short term, as the event continues to ferment, methanol is in a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a low - buying strategy should be adopted, with a focus on tracking the external situation [4].