2026年3月原油月度报告：冠通期货研究报告-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term crude oil price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state. If there is no substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East, with the digestion of geopolitical premiums, as refineries enter the spring maintenance period in March (a low - demand season for global crude oil) and with high global crude oil inventories, crude oil prices may rise first and then fall. The progress of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil price fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan is undetermined and may be adjusted later. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased significantly beyond expectations, while the de - stocking of refined oil products is relatively small, resulting in a large increase in overall oil inventories. Due to U.S. trade agreement pressure, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not made substantial progress, and the U.S. and Israel launched an air strike on Iran on February 28, which was counter - attacked by Iran. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, with an oil tanker being hit. Trump said the military action against Iran may last about four weeks, and he has agreed to dialogue with Iran [3] 3.2 Market Review - In February 2026, crude oil prices first declined and then rose, with the closing price hitting a new high for the year. At the beginning of the month, due to the cooling of macro - sentiment, the easing of the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the fading of the cold wave's impact, crude oil prices dropped significantly. As the Iranian situation fluctuated, the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods were reduced from 25% to 18%, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. During the Spring Festival, the second - round U.S. - Iran negotiations were uncertain. In the first half of the week, Iran said positive progress was made, but in the second half, the U.S. increased military threats in the Middle East. With concerns about the Middle East situation and a significant reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, overseas crude oil prices continued to rise during the Spring Festival holiday, hitting a new high for the year [7] 3.3 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - Since February, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds has increased. As of the week of February 17, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds decreased by 17,876 contracts to 263,186 contracts, a decrease of 6.36%, but an increase of 6.59% compared to the end of January. The enthusiasm for speculative long - positions in crude oil has been rising since mid - December 2025 and is at a neutral level in recent years. As of February 25, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 907,000 barrels to 2.557 million barrels compared to the end of January 2025, still at a relatively low level [11] 3.4 Crude Oil Production - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan is undetermined. U.S. crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.702 million barrels per day in the week of February 20 and is near the historical high [15] 3.5 Oil Drilling Rigs - In February, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs decreased slightly. As of the week of February 20, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs was 409, unchanged from the previous week and a decrease of 2 compared to the week of January 30. The slight decline of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased the expectation that low oil prices will limit U.S. crude oil production growth [19] 3.6 U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to U.S. Energy Agency data, as of the week of February 20, U.S. crude oil imports increased by 135,000 barrels per day to 6.659 million barrels per day, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period of previous years; U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 277,000 barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [23] 3.7 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month. In December, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 26.85% month - on - month to 62.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.10% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly. China's domestic crude oil imports also increased month - on - month and were at the highest level in the same period of previous years. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 9.98% month - on - month to 55.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 4.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rebound slightly [27] 3.8 U.S. Dollar Index - On February 20, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the U.S. PCE price index in December 2025 increased by 2.9% year - on - year, up from 2.8% in the previous period; the PCE price index increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.3% and 0.2% in the previous period. The core PCE price index in December 2025 increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9% and 2.8% in the previous period; the core PCE price index increased by 0.4% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3% and 0.2% in the previous period. After the data was released, the expectation of interest rate cuts was postponed to July [31] 3.9 Gasoline Crack Spread - In February, the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased by $13 per barrel and $7 per barrel respectively. The U.S. and European diesel crack spreads increased by $11 per barrel and $4 per barrel respectively [35] 3.10 U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel; it lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. According to the latest U.S. Energy Agency data, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 21.391 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%, and the deviation from the same period last year increased. Among them, the weekly gasoline production decreased by 0.18% to 8.733 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.484 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%; the weekly diesel production decreased by 18.05% to 3.895 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4.352 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel production led to a 0.89% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [40] 3.11 Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of February 25, U.S. EIA data showed that as of the week of February 20, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.481 million barrels, and were 0.77% higher than the five - year average. The inventory increased by 12.05 million barrels in the past four weeks. The Cushing area inventory was reported at 24.899 million barrels, an increase of 881,000 barrels compared with the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the inventory increased by 114,000 barrels in the past four weeks. U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 560,000 barrels, and decreased by 2.379 million barrels in the past four weeks. Gasoline inventories are at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years and have started seasonal de - stocking. As of the week of February 20, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022 [44][48] 3.12 Geopolitical Risks - On February 28, local time, the U.S. and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry, eliminate its navy, and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu announced that the goal of the military action was to overthrow the Iranian regime. The Israeli military claimed that several Iranian military leaders were killed in the first - round strike, and Iran confirmed the martyrdom of Khamenei. After the U.S. and Israel attacked targets such as the Iranian presidential palace, Iran launched a missile strike on Tel Aviv, and U.S. military bases in the Middle East were also attacked. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the ban on any ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, and many oil tanker owners and traders have suspended transporting crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas through this strait. On March 1, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if Iran's oil and gas facilities are attacked, all oil and gas facilities in the region will be destroyed. On March 1, Trump said the U.S. had destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian naval vessels and would continue to attack the rest, and the U.S. Central Command said it had destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [50]