3月沪铜月度报告：冠通期货研究报告-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro Aspect: On the 22nd, the US Customs and Border Protection Bureau (CBP) announced that it would stop imposing tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act starting from February 24th, Eastern Time. On the 20th, Trump announced a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court's ruling. On February 28th, the Iran-US conflict broke out, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. Currently, military operations are still ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked after Iran's military retaliation [6]. - Supply Aspect: In February, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month-on-month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year-on-year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. Since many enterprises that underwent maintenance in January will resume production in March and new smelters will increase production, the production in March may reach a record high. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. However, domestic policies are disrupting the scrap copper industry chain. As demand grows, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports [6]. - Demand Aspect: Copper prices have been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have a strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off-season for the industry, combined with high copper prices. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. According to SMM, in January 2026, the operating rate of Chinese copper rod enterprises dropped to 61%, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises dropped to only 20%, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises remained at 88.5%, almost unchanged month-on-month, and the operating rate of domestic copper strip enterprises was about 70% [6]. - Comprehensive View: Shanghai copper fluctuated within a narrow range during the month. During the month, it was affected by the news that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the copper resource reserve, as well as the impact of US tariff disturbances and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Guided by the global asset risk aversion sentiment, high copper prices affected the downstream's purchasing and inventory - building. In terms of supply, although the shortage of copper concentrates remained, domestic copper production remained at a high level, and even higher production may occur in March. The actual supply - demand of copper showed an oversupply. The data of the terminal automobile and real estate sectors were sluggish. The subsequent performance may depend on the policy expectations brought by major domestic meetings in March. Recently, copper prices have been mostly affected by their macro - financial attributes. The strengthening of the US dollar under the recent Middle East geopolitical conflicts may suppress copper prices. After the sentiment gradually eases, copper prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate mainly, and be bullish in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Supply - side Data - Copper Concentrate Supply: In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to December, China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 30.365 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.8%. On February 6th, Canadian mining giant Capstone Copper announced that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile had approved a new three - year labor contract, ending the strike that started on January 2nd [14]. - Smelter Fees: As of February 28th, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.96 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 5.01 US cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline, while the sulfuric acid price still maintained an upward trend. Precious metals soared due to geopolitical conflicts, and the profits from smelter by - products were maintained. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members would jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19th, Chinese copper smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at 0 US dollars per ton and 0 US cents per pound, a historic "zero" compared to 21.25 US dollars per ton and 2.125 US cents per pound in 2025 [18]. - Scrap Copper Supply: According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 2.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 31.52 percentage points. The resumption time of factories was postponed compared to the pre - holiday expected time, which may affect the output of finished products. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China's imports of recycled copper raw materials reached 239,000 tons, and the imports at each customs showed significant differentiation. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. However, domestic policies are disrupting the scrap copper industry chain. As demand grows, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports [22]. - Refined Copper Supply: In February, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year - on - year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. Since many enterprises that underwent maintenance in January will resume production in March and new smelters will increase production, the production in March may reach a record high. In December 2025, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a 21.8% decrease compared to December 2024. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% decrease compared to January - December 2024 [26]. Copper Demand Status - Apparent Demand: Copper prices have been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have a strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off - season for the industry, combined with high copper prices. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. According to SMM, in January 2026, the operating rate of Chinese copper rod enterprises dropped to 61%, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises dropped to only 20%, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises remained at 88.5%, almost unchanged month - on - month, and the operating rate of domestic copper strip enterprises was about 70% [33]. - Power Grid Project Data: In 2025, China's total social electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, reaching 10.37 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, ranking first in the world in terms of electricity consumption. It is expected that in 2026, China's total social electricity consumption will be between 10.9 and 11 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5% - 6%. The maximum unified power load throughout the year is expected to be between 15.7 and 16.3 billion kilowatts. The newly added power generation capacity in 2026 is expected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, among which the newly added new - energy power generation capacity is expected to exceed 300 million kilowatts. It is expected that the installed capacity of solar power generation will exceed that of coal - fired power generation for the first time in 2026. By the end of the year, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power generation will reach half of the total power generation capacity, and the proportion of coal - fired power in the total installed capacity will drop to about 31% [37]. - Household Appliance Demand: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 21.629 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the national refrigerator production was 10.011 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%; the national washing - machine production was 11.975 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the national color - TV production was 19.521 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. There were promotional activities at the end of the year, but the increase in market consumption was limited [41]. - Real Estate and Infrastructure Data: In January, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 20.08% year - on - year, and the decline was slightly narrowed by 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. The real estate sector was still in a drag state. Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Policies in this City" ("Shanghai Seven Articles"), which came into effect on February 26, 2026. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [46]. - Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data: According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from February 1st to 8th, the new - energy retail penetration rate in the national passenger - car market was 36.4%; from February 1st to 8th, the new - energy wholesale penetration rate of national passenger - car manufacturers was 43.9%. From February 1st to 8th, the new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% compared to the same period in February last year and a 3% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative wholesale volume has been 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1%. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, the new - energy automobile market operated stably, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. In addition, the commercial - vehicle market continued to show a positive trend. In January, both production and sales maintained double - digit year - on - year growth. In January, automobile exports continued to grow. Among them, new - energy automobile exports maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 units exported, a year - on - year increase of 100%. Since January 1st, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - reduction. On December 30th, the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidy for heavy - duty trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged. The subsidy for low - price cars has been reduced, and the subsidy makes up for part of the reduction caused by the increase in the purchase tax [50]. Copper Inventory Data - Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories: As of February 27, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 253,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The COMEX copper inventory was 601,500 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11% and a year - on - year increase of 525.19%. After the C - L spread converged, the LME copper inventory warrants began to increase. Currently, it is about to increase to a level higher than the same period last year. The global overall inventory shows an accumulation of inventory, which suppresses the rise of copper prices. At present, there is no short - term expectation for the US refined copper tariff to be issued, and the marginal effect of the US copper siphon is weakening [56]. - Copper Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange and Bonded Areas: As of February 27, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 290,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 137,939 tons, an increase of 90.36%, and a year - on - year increase of 87.87%. During the Chinese New Year, most downstream enterprises stopped production, while the reduction in the supply side was limited, resulting in a significant accumulation of copper inventory. On February 26th, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 99,300 tons. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase during the week, mainly because some export goods from smelters arrived and were stored in the warehouse, but the quantity was relatively small, and the inventory accumulation was limited [61].