每日核心期货品种分析-20260302

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 2, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, etc. 1. Market Performance 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 2, most domestic futures main contracts were up. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil, etc. hit the daily limit. Shanghai silver rose over 9%, and some other contracts like p-xylene (PX), PTA, and synthetic rubber rose over 6%. In terms of declines, polysilicon fell over 2% and live pigs fell nearly 2% [7]. - Among stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.07%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.06%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 0.07%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.15%. Among treasury bond futures, the main contracts of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) all rose [8]. 1.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:27 on March 2, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (4.837 billion yuan), CSI 2603 (1.563 billion yuan), and Shanghai silver 2604 (1.539 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai tin 2604 (871 million yuan), lithium carbonate 2605 (626 million yuan), and cotton 2605 (563 million yuan) [8]. 2. Market Analysis of Specific Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, rising during the day. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons MoM (3.13%), and is expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. The downstream is resistant to high copper prices, and the copper product sector is under pressure. Overall, the copper market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, copper prices may be under pressure and fluctuate, and are expected to be strong in the long term [10][11]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade is 169,000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal and holiday factors, the supply of lithium carbonate raw materials decreased in February. The downstream battery production is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased. The new 15% tariff and the "rush to export" expectation support the price. However, the short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts is limited, and the price may fluctuate [12]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The EIA data shows a large increase in US crude oil inventory. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, Iran's oil production and exports are affected, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a great impact on the price [13][14]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt supply is weak, with the operating rate at a low level. In March, the domestic asphalt production is expected to increase by 13.0% MoM. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the overall supply and demand are still weak. The price is expected to follow the rise of crude oil prices, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [15][17]. 2.5 PP - As of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased seasonally. The PP enterprise operating rate is at a neutral-low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The rise in crude oil prices has a significant impact on PP. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [18]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic operating rate is at a neutral-high level, and the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the plastic price will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [19][20]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate is gradually recovering. The export is expected to decline, and the social inventory is still high. The PVC price is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to be strong in the long term due to policy and maintenance expectations [21]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, rebounding slightly during the day. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and the domestic mine production is increasing. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and policy expectations [23]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The spot price has risen. The supply is high, the inventory is low, and the demand is expected to be high. It is expected that urea will fluctuate strongly in March, and attention should be paid to the impact of national reserve release on the price [24][26].